Aerojet Beneish M Score

AJRD
 Stock
  

USD 40.14  1.28  3.29%   

This module uses fundamental data of Aerojet Rocketdyne to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Aerojet Rocketdyne M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Please continue to Aerojet Rocketdyne Piotroski F Score and Aerojet Rocketdyne Altman Z Score analysis.
  
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Aerojet Rocketdyne Debt Non Current is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Debt Non Current was at 335.9 Million. The current year Long Term Debt to Equity is expected to grow to 0.56, whereas Debt Current is forecasted to decline to about 146.9 M. Aerojet Rocketdyne Long Term Debt to Equity is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Long Term Debt to Equity was at 0.55. The current year Calculated Tax Rate is expected to grow to 26.47, whereas Total Assets Per Share are forecasted to decline to 28.06.
At this time, it appears that Aerojet Rocketdyne is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Aerojet Rocketdyne's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Aerojet Rocketdyne executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Aerojet Rocketdyne's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.44
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables1.06Focus
Asset Quality1.14Focus
Expense Coverage1.14Focus
Gross Margin Strengs1.02Focus
Accruals Factor1.14Focus
Depreciation Resistance0.91Focus
Net Sales Growth0.97Focus
Financial Leverage Condition1.12Focus

Aerojet Rocketdyne Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Aerojet Rocketdyne's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Revenues2.1 B2.2 B
Sufficiently Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Selling General and Administrative Expense50.8 M46 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Net Cash Flow from Operations205.4 M199.6 M
Fairly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion65.5 M61.4 M
Notably Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Assets2.5 B2.4 B
Fairly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Investments10.9 M10.6 M
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Investments Current10.9 M10.6 M
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Property Plant and Equipment Net454.8 M473.7 M
Sufficiently Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Trade and Non Trade Receivables62.2 M60.6 M
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Total Liabilities2.1 B1.9 B
Moderately Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Assets1.2 B1.2 B
Sufficiently Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Assets Non Current1.3 B1.2 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Liabilities854.5 M875.8 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Liabilities Non Current1.3 BB
Fairly Up
Increasing
Very volatile
Total Debt603.5 M502.6 M
Fairly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Current146.9 M166.7 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Non Current380.3 M335.9 M
Moderately Up
Decreasing
Stable
Operating Income217.2 M257 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Gross Margin0.180.177
Fairly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile

Aerojet Rocketdyne Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Aerojet Rocketdyne's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Aerojet Rocketdyne in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Aerojet Rocketdyne's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Aerojet Rocketdyne Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Depreciation Amortization and Accretion

65.48 Million

Share
Aerojet Rocketdyne Depreciation Amortization and Accretion is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Depreciation Amortization and Accretion was at 61.4 Million

Aerojet Rocketdyne Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Aerojet Rocketdyne. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Revenues1.88 B1.9 B1.98 B2.07 B2.19 B2.12 B
Total Assets2.26 B2.49 B2.71 B2.9 B2.42 B2.46 B
Current Assets1.02 B1.23 B1.42 B1.66 B1.23 B1.18 B
Assets Non Current1.24 B1.26 B1.29 B1.24 B1.2 B1.29 B
Total Liabilities2.16 B2.07 B2.13 B2.67 B1.9 B2.13 B
Current Liabilities594.8 M878.3 M869.9 M1.46 B875.8 M854.46 M
Total Debt616.4 M625.4 M676.1 M660 M502.6 M603.53 M
Debt Current25 M273.1 M284.7 M299.9 M166.7 M146.89 M
Debt Non Current591.4 M352.3 M391.4 M360.1 M335.9 M380.31 M
Operating Income195.7 M233.7 M238.2 M240.6 M257 M217.18 M

About Aerojet Rocketdyne Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Aerojet Rocketdyne using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerospace and defense products and systems in the United States. Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1915 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California. Aerojet Rocketdyne operates under Aerospace Defense classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 5000 people.

Aerojet Rocketdyne Investors Sentiment

The influence of Aerojet Rocketdyne's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Aerojet. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Aerojet Rocketdyne Implied Volatility

    
  23.84  
Aerojet Rocketdyne's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aerojet Rocketdyne's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aerojet Rocketdyne stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aerojet Rocketdyne's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Aerojet Rocketdyne in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Aerojet Rocketdyne's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Aerojet Rocketdyne options trading.

Current Sentiment - AJRD

Aerojet Rocketdyne Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are presently bullish on Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings. What is your sentiment towards investing in Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

Pair Trading with Aerojet Rocketdyne

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aerojet Rocketdyne position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aerojet Rocketdyne will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Aerojet Rocketdyne Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aerojet Rocketdyne could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aerojet Rocketdyne when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aerojet Rocketdyne - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Aerojet Rocketdyne is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aerojet Rocketdyne moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aerojet Rocketdyne moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aerojet Rocketdyne can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Aerojet Rocketdyne Piotroski F Score and Aerojet Rocketdyne Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the Aerojet Rocketdyne information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aerojet Rocketdyne's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.

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Is Aerojet Rocketdyne's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aerojet Rocketdyne. If investors know Aerojet will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aerojet Rocketdyne listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.51
Market Capitalization
3.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.03
Return On Assets
0.0679
Return On Equity
0.37
The market value of Aerojet Rocketdyne is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aerojet that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aerojet Rocketdyne's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aerojet Rocketdyne's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aerojet Rocketdyne's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aerojet Rocketdyne's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aerojet Rocketdyne's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Aerojet Rocketdyne value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aerojet Rocketdyne's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.