Tillys Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

TLYS
 Stock
  

USD 9.56  0.17  1.75%   

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Tillys Inc is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Tillys buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Tillys positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Tillys' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
The advice is provided from Tillys' buy-and-hold perspective. Additionally, take a look at Tillys Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Tillys and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Tillys Inc.

Execute Tillys Buy or Sell Advice

The Tillys recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Tillys Inc. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Tillys Inc or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Tillys' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell TillysBuy Tillys
Strong Buy

Volatility

Details

Hype Condition

Details

Current Valuation

Details

Odds of Distress

Details

Economic Sensitivity

Details

Analyst Consensus

Details

Financial Strenth (F Score)

Details

Financial Leverage

Inapplicable
Details

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Details
For the selected time horizon Tillys Inc has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.3162, Jensen Alpha of 0.4669, Total Risk Alpha of 0.4202, Sortino Ratio of 0.1982 and Treynor Ratio of 0.5179
We provide advice to complement the current expert consensus on Tillys. Our dynamic recommendation engine harnesses a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the firm's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time. To make sure Tillys Inc is not overpriced, please validate all Tillys fundamentals, including its revenue, earnings per share, annual yield, as well as the relationship between the total debt and total asset . Given that Tillys Inc has a price to earning of 4.16 X, we advise you to double-check Tillys Inc market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your current risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Tillys Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Tillys Inc has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Wilhelmina International Non-Reliance on Previously Issued Financial Report - Form 8-K - Marketscreener.com

Tillys Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Tillys' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Tillys' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Tillys stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Tillys Inc price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Tillys returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Tillys.
Mean Return0.54Value At Risk-3.34
Potential Upside3.99Standard Deviation2.61
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Tillys historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Tillys Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Tillys or Specialty Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Tillys' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Tillys stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.47
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.03
σ
Overall volatility
2.61
Ir
Information ratio 0.18

Tillys Volatility Alert

Tillys Inc currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.18 and Jensen Alpha of 0.47. However, we advise investors to further question Tillys Inc expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Tillys' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Tillys' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Tillys Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Tillys' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Tillys' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Tillys and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Tillys or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Tillys' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tillys by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Tillys to competition
FundamentalsTillysPeer Average
Return On Equity0.12 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset0.0355 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin0.0314 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.0429 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation444.29 M16.62 B
Shares Outstanding22.8 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders2.29 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions79.86 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted841.28 K4.71 M
Price to Earning4.16 X28.72 X
Price to Book1.66 X9.51 X
Price to Sales0.42 X11.42 X
Revenue775.69 M9.43 B
Gross Profit355.08 M27.38 B
EBITDA103.84 M3.9 B
Net Income64.25 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents116.38 M2.7 B
Cash per Share3.87 X5.01 X
Total Debt251.47 M5.32 B
Debt to Equity1.47 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.59 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share5.87 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations63.4 M971.22 M
Short Ratio5.54 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share1.24 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth0.98 X4.89 X
Target Price10.0
Number of Employees1.45 K18.84 K
Beta1.91-0.15
Market Capitalization291.17 M19.03 B
Total Asset504.82 M29.47 B
Retained Earnings39.84 M9.33 B
Working Capital110.97 M1.48 B
   Tillys exotic insider transaction detected [view details]

Tillys Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Tillys . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Tillys Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Tillys Inc? Buying financial instruments such as Tillys Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2010 2014 2020 2022 (projected)
Receivables5.58 M7.49 M6.71 M5.99 M
Inventories46.27 M56.9 M65.64 M61.66 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Tillys in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Latest Gainers Thematic Idea Now

Latest Gainers
Latest Gainers Theme
Dynamically computed list of top equities currently sorted across major exchanges. The Latest Gainers theme has 129 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Latest Gainers Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Additionally, take a look at Tillys Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

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Is Tillys' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Tillys. If investors know Tillys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Tillys listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.74) 
Market Capitalization
291.2 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.14) 
Return On Assets
0.0355
Return On Equity
0.1186
The market value of Tillys Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Tillys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Tillys' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Tillys' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Tillys' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Tillys' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Tillys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Tillys value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tillys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.