Microsoft Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

MSFT
 Stock
  

USD 244.37  0.75  0.31%   

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your complete indifference towards market risk, our recommendation regarding Microsoft is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Microsoft buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding MSFT positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Microsoft's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
The advice is provided from Microsoft's buy-and-hold perspective. Additionally, see Microsoft Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Microsoft and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Microsoft.

Execute Microsoft Buy or Sell Advice

The Microsoft recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Microsoft. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Microsoft or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Microsoft's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell MicrosoftBuy Microsoft
Strong Buy

Volatility

Details

Hype Condition

Details

Current Valuation

Details

Odds of Distress

Details

Economic Sensitivity

Details

Analyst Consensus

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Financial Strenth (F Score)

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Financial Leverage

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Reporting Quality (M-Score)

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For the selected time horizon Microsoft has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.013091), Jensen Alpha of (0.13), Total Risk Alpha of (0.15) and Treynor Ratio of (0.029188)
Macroaxis provides trade recommendations on Microsoft to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Microsoft. Our advice engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Microsoft is not overpriced, please verify all Microsoft fundamentals, including its number of shares shorted, total debt, beta, as well as the relationship between the gross profit and short ratio . Given that Microsoft has a price to book of 10.95 X, we recommend you to check Microsoft market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your last-minute risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Microsoft Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Microsoft generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Activision Sinks on Concern US Will Block Microsofts 69 Billion Deal - Bloomberg

Microsoft Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Microsoft's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Microsoft's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Microsoft stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Microsoft price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Microsoft returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Microsoft.
Mean Return-0.03Value At Risk-3.54
Potential Upside3.92Standard Deviation2.57
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Microsoft historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Microsoft Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Microsoft is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Microsoft backward and forwards among themselves. Microsoft's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Microsoft's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Zwj Investment Counsel IncCommon Shares199.5 K46.5 M
Zwj Investment Counsel IncCommon Shares198 K50.9 M
Zwj Investment Counsel IncCommon Shares195.1 K60.1 M
Zwj Investment Counsel IncCommon Shares231.3 K77.8 M
Zwj Investment Counsel IncCommon Shares244.1 K68.8 M
Zwj Investment Counsel IncCommon Shares244.6 K66.3 M
Zwj Investment Counsel IncCommon Shares251.1 K59.2 M
Note, although Microsoft's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Microsoft Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(11.63 B)(13.93 B)(15.44 B)(20.62 B)(23.89 B)(24.51 B)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion10.26 B11.68 B12.8 B11.69 B14.46 B12.57 B
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents4.28 B(590 M)2.22 B648 M(293 M)(300.71 M)
Net Cash Flow Business Acquisitions and Disposals(888 M)(2.39 B)(2.52 B)(8.91 B)(22.04 B)(22.62 B)
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares(9.72 B)(18.4 B)(21.62 B)(25.69 B)(30.86 B)(31.67 B)
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities(10.2 B)(4 B)(8.94 B)(5.5 B)(9.02 B)(9.26 B)
Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions(12.7 B)(13.81 B)(15.14 B)(16.52 B)(18.14 B)(19.57 B)
Net Cash Flow from Financing(33.59 B)(36.89 B)(46.03 B)(48.49 B)(58.88 B)(60.43 B)
Net Cash Flow from Investing(6.06 B)(15.77 B)(12.22 B)(27.58 B)(30.31 B)(32.7 B)
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals6.56 B540 M6.98 B2.88 B18.44 B19.89 B
Net Cash Flow from Operations43.88 B52.19 B60.67 B76.74 B89.03 B96.06 B
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash50 M(115 M)(201 M)(29 M)(141 M)(144.71 M)
Share Based Compensation3.94 B4.65 B5.29 B6.12 B7.5 B6.2 B

Microsoft Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Microsoft or Software sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Microsoft's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Microsoft stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.13
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.35
σ
Overall volatility
2.59
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

Microsoft Volatility Alert

Microsoft exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.24 and kurtosis of 1.9. However, we advise investors to further study Microsoft technical indicators to ensure that all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Microsoft's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Microsoft's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Microsoft Implied Volatility

Microsoft's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Microsoft stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Microsoft's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Microsoft stock will not fluctuate a lot when Microsoft's options are near their expiration.

Microsoft Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Microsoft's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Microsoft's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Microsoft and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Microsoft or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Microsoft's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Microsoft by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Microsoft to competition
FundamentalsMicrosoftPeer Average
Return On Equity0.43 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset0.15 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin0.34 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.42 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation1854.08 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding7.45 B571.82 M
Shares Owned by Institutions72.20 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted34.59 M4.71 M
Price to Earning26.64 X28.72 X
Price to Book10.95 X9.51 X
Price to Sales9.00 X11.42 X
Revenue198.27 B9.43 B
Gross Profit135.62 B27.38 B
EBITDA100.24 B3.9 B
Net Income72.74 B570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents13.93 B2.7 B
Cash per Share14.39 X5.01 X
Total Debt47.03 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.44 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.84 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share23.28 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations89.03 B971.22 M
Short Ratio1.01 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share9.29 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth2.26 X4.89 X
Target Price296.91
Number of Employees221 K18.84 K
Beta0.93-0.15
Market Capitalization1827.24 B19.03 B
Total Asset364.84 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings29.97 B9.33 B
Working Capital80.3 B1.48 B
Current Asset139.66 B9.34 B
   Payment of 10303 shares by Christopher Young of Microsoft subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Microsoft Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Microsoft . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Microsoft Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Microsoft? Buying financial instruments such as Microsoft Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Receivables32.01 B38.04 B44.26 B47.76 B
Inventories1.9 B2.64 B3.74 B4.04 B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Microsoft in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Run Latest Losers Thematic Idea Now

Latest Losers
Latest Losers Theme
Dynamically computed list of top equities currently sorted across major exchanges. The Latest Losers theme has 124 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Latest Losers Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Additionally, see Microsoft Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Microsoft information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Microsoft's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

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When running Microsoft price analysis, check to measure Microsoft's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microsoft is operating at the current time. Most of Microsoft's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microsoft's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microsoft's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microsoft to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Microsoft's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Microsoft. If investors know Microsoft will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Microsoft listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.13) 
Market Capitalization
1865.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.106
Return On Assets
0.1522
Return On Equity
0.4288
The market value of Microsoft is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Microsoft that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Microsoft's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Microsoft's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Microsoft's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Microsoft's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Microsoft's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Microsoft value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Microsoft's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.