Avista Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

AVA
 Stock
  

USD 44.63  0.03  0.07%   

Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Avista Corp is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Avista Corp buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AVA positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Avista Corp's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
The advice is provided from Avista Corp's buy-and-hold perspective. Please continue to Avista Corp Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Avista and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Avista Corp.

Execute Avista Corp Buy or Sell Advice

The Avista recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Avista Corp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Avista Corp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Avista Corp's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Avista CorpBuy Avista Corp
Strong Hold

Volatility

Details

Hype Condition

Details

Current Valuation

Details

Odds of Distress

Details

Economic Sensitivity

Details

Analyst Consensus

Details

Financial Strenth (F Score)

Details

Financial Leverage

Inapplicable
Details

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Details
For the selected time horizon Avista Corp has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0631, Jensen Alpha of 0.0514, Total Risk Alpha of 0.009, Sortino Ratio of 0.0108 and Treynor Ratio of 0.2387
Avista Corp advice module can be used to check and cross-verify current investment recommendation provided by analysts analyzing the company's potential to grow using all of fundamental, technical, data market data available at the time. To make sure Avista Corp is not overpriced, please confirm all Avista Corp fundamentals, including its shares owned by insiders, revenue, total debt, as well as the relationship between the price to earning and net income . Given that Avista Corp has a price to earning of 19.65 X, we suggest you to validate Avista Corp market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Avista Corp Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

The company has 2.72 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.22, which is OK given its current industry classification. Avista Corp has a current ratio of 0.91, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Avista Corp until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Avista Corp's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Avista Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Avista to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Avista Corp's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Avista Corp has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 87.0% of Avista Corp shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Avista Corp exotic insider transaction detected

Avista Corp current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Avista analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Avista analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price42.60
Target Median Price44.00
Target High Price51.00
Recommendation Mean3.20
Number Of Analyst Opinions5
Target Low Price34.00
Average Consensus Hold
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Avista Corp Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Avista Corp's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Avista Corp's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Avista Corp stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Avista Corp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Avista Corp returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Avista Corp.
Mean Return0.07Value At Risk-2.07
Potential Upside2.26Standard Deviation1.48
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Avista Corp historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Avista Corp Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(412.34 M)(424.35 M)(442.51 M)(404.31 M)(439.94 M)(474.67 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion175.66 M187.32 M205.99 M224.22 M232.18 M219.55 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents7.67 M(1.52 M)(4.76 M)4.3 M7.97 M8.6 M
Net Cash Flow Business Acquisitions and Disposals9.61 M(18.19 M)(17.38 M)(16.84 M)(15.15 M)(15.55 M)
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares56.38 M1.21 M64.57 M72.2 M90 M97.1 M
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities71.71 M181.79 M83.14 M127.4 M218.06 M173.21 M
Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions(92.46 M)(98.05 M)(102.77 M)(110.25 M)(118.21 M)(127.54 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing31.47 M77.03 M42.54 M84.04 M185.55 M200.2 M
Net Cash Flow from Investing(434.1 M)(440.43 M)(445.51 M)(410.74 M)(444.92 M)(480.04 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations410.3 M361.88 M398.21 M331 M267.34 M330.1 M
Share Based Compensation7.36 M5.37 M11.35 M5.85 M4.71 M6.44 M

Avista Corp Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Avista Corp or Utilities sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Avista Corp's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Avista stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.05
β
Beta against DOW0.27
σ
Overall volatility
1.51
Ir
Information ratio 0.0122

Avista Corp Volatility Alert

Avista Corp has relatively low volatility with skewness of -0.92 and kurtosis of 2.5. However, we advise all investors to independently investigate Avista Corp to ensure all accessible information is consistent with the expectations about its upside potential and future expected returns. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Avista Corp's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Avista Corp's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Avista Corp Implied Volatility

Avista Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Avista Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Avista Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Avista Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Avista Corp's options are near their expiration.

Avista Corp Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Avista Corp's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Avista Corp's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Avista Corp and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Avista Corp or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Avista Corp's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Avista Corp by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Avista Corp to competition
FundamentalsAvista CorpPeer Average
Return On Equity7.01 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset1.95 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin10.14 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin30.18 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation5.58 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding70.77 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders0.82 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions87.11 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted2.1 M4.71 M
Price to Earning19.65 X28.72 X
Price to Book1.48 X9.51 X
Price to Sales2.08 X11.42 X
Revenue1.49 B9.43 B
Gross Profit941.81 M27.38 B
EBITDA449.12 M3.9 B
Net Income150.88 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents203.6 M2.7 B
Cash per Share2.81 X5.01 X
Total Debt2.72 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity1.22 %48.70 %
Current Ratio0.93 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share29.70 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations284.1 M971.22 M
Short Ratio4.49 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share2.23 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth3.68 X4.89 X
Number of Employees1.92 K18.84 K
Beta0.59-0.15
Market Capitalization3.1 B19.03 B
Total Asset4.91 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings667.22 M9.33 B
Working Capital(168.63 M)1.48 B
Current Asset306.05 M9.34 B
   Avista Corp exotic insider transaction detected [view details]

About Avista Corp Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Avista Corp? Buying financial instruments such as Avista Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Receivables166.66 M163.77 M203.03 M216.13 M
Inventories66.58 M67.45 M84.73 M69.42 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

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Military Industrial
Military Industrial Theme
A collection of large United States defense contractors including companies involved in production or distribution of aircraft, ships, vehicles, weaponry, and electronic systems in cooperation with the government. The Military Industrial theme has 46 constituents at this time.
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Please continue to Avista Corp Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Avista Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Avista Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

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Is Avista Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Avista Corp. If investors know Avista will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Avista Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.21
Market Capitalization
3.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.27
Return On Assets
0.0185
Return On Equity
0.0688
The market value of Avista Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Avista that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Avista Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Avista Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Avista Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Avista Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Avista Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Avista Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Avista Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.