American Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

APEI
 Stock
  

USD 12.14  0.26  2.19%   

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your below-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding American Public Education is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides American Public buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding APEI positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of American Public's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
The advice is provided from American Public's buy-and-hold perspective. Please continue to American Public Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as American and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards American Public Education.

Execute American Public Buy or Sell Advice

The American recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on American Public Education. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in American Public Education or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute American Public's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell American PublicBuy American Public
Cautious Hold

Volatility

Details

Hype Condition

Details

Current Valuation

Details

Odds of Distress

Details

Economic Sensitivity

Details

Analyst Consensus

Details

Financial Strenth (F Score)

Details

Financial Leverage

Inapplicable
Details

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Details
For the selected time horizon American Public Education has a Mean Deviation of 2.27, Standard Deviation of 3.66 and Variance of 13.37
Our trade advice tool can cross-verify current analyst consensus on American Public Education and to analyze the company potential to grow in the current economic cycle. To make sure American Public is not overpriced, please confirm all American Public Education fundamentals, including its current valuation, price to book, cash and equivalents, as well as the relationship between the shares owned by institutions and gross profit . Given that American Public Education has a number of shares shorted of 339.4 K, we suggest you to validate American Public Education market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

American Public Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

American Public generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
American Public has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Latest headline from www.forbes.com: Non-Traditional Education Drives Entrepreneur To Unexpected Heights - Forbes

American Public current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. American analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. American analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price23.67
Target Median Price21.00
Target High Price30.00
Recommendation Mean1.50
Number Of Analyst Opinions3
Target Low Price20.00
Average Consensus Strong Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

American Public Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of American Public's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of American Public's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of American Public stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use American Public Education price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of American Public returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for American Public.
Mean Return-0.17Value At Risk-6.02
Potential Upside3.85Standard Deviation3.66
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of American Public historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

American Public Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(13.29 M)(9.43 M)(7.25 M)(4.16 M)(11.16 M)(12.04 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion18.78 M17.5 M15.6 M12.98 M17.83 M18.47 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents32.85 M32.93 M(9.39 M)24.95 M(78.06 M)(80.11 M)
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares(1.49 M)(1.82 M)(40.51 M)(15.71 M)83.17 M89.74 M
Net Cash Flow from Financing(1.49 M)(1.82 M)(40.51 M)(15.71 M)242.34 M261.47 M
Net Cash Flow from Investing(13.6 M)(9.43 M)(7.25 M)(4.16 M)(336.67 M)(345.52 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations47.94 M44.18 M38.37 M44.81 M16.27 M16.69 M
Share Based Compensation6.25 M7.18 M5.96 M7.08 M7.65 M7.29 M

American Public Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to American Public or Consumer Defensive sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that American Public's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a American stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.19
β
Beta against DOW0.27
σ
Overall volatility
3.69
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

American Public Volatility Alert

American Public Education exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -2.86 and kurtosis of 13.75. However, we advise investors to further study American Public Education technical indicators to ensure that all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure American Public's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact American Public's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

American Public Implied Volatility

American Public's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Public Education stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Public's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Public stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Public's options are near their expiration.

American Public Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing American Public's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze American Public's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between American Public and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as American Public or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of American Public's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Public by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare American Public to competition
FundamentalsAmerican PublicPeer Average
Return On Equity3.64 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset3.40 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin3.09 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin6.93 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation421.93 M16.62 B
Shares Outstanding18.71 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders2.37 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions105.10 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted339.4 K4.71 M
Price to Earning14.62 X28.72 X
Price to Book0.60 X9.51 X
Price to Sales0.50 X11.42 X
Revenue485.01 M9.43 B
Gross Profit246.18 M27.38 B
EBITDA56.93 M3.9 B
Net Income14.98 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents144.54 M2.7 B
Cash per Share7.66 X5.01 X
Total Debt270.24 M5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.64 %48.70 %
Current Ratio2.40 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share21.62 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations30.29 M971.22 M
Short Ratio6.47 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share0.89 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth1.31 X4.89 X
Number of Employees2.59 K18.84 K
Beta0.5-0.15
Market Capitalization243.22 M19.03 B
Total Asset303.9 M29.47 B
Retained Earnings114.33 M9.33 B
Working Capital80.31 M1.48 B
Current Asset131.11 M9.34 B
   Acquisition by Slagle Thomas M of 5474 shares of American Public subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

About American Public Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell American Public Education? Buying financial instruments such as American Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Accounts Payable3.55 M3.76 M13.5 M12.77 M
Receivables11.32 M17.65 M36.03 M38.87 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having American Public in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Entertainment Thematic Idea Now

Entertainment
Entertainment Theme
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Entertainment theme has 61 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Entertainment Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Please continue to American Public Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the American Public Education information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Public's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.

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Is American Public's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Public. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Public listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.43
Market Capitalization
224.3 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.92
Return On Assets
0.0359
Return On Equity
-0.27
The market value of American Public Education is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Public's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Public's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Public's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Public's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Public's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Public value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Public's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.