Alcon Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

ALC
 Stock
  

USD 70.07  0.51  0.73%   

Considering the 90-day investment horizon and complete risk avoidance on your part, our recommendation regarding Alcon Inc is 'Strong Sell'. Macroaxis provides Alcon buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Alcon positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Alcon's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
The advice is provided from Alcon's buy-and-hold perspective. Please continue to Alcon Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Alcon and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Alcon Inc.

Execute Alcon Buy or Sell Advice

The Alcon recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Alcon Inc. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Alcon Inc or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Alcon's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell AlconBuy Alcon
Strong Sell

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds of Distress

Very SmallDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Follows the market closelyDetails

Analyst Consensus

HoldDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

StrongDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Alcon Inc has a Mean Deviation of 1.45, Semi Deviation of 1.75, Standard Deviation of 1.94, Variance of 3.75, Downside Variance of 3.31 and Semi Variance of 3.07
Macroaxis provides unbiased investment recommendation on Alcon Inc that should be used to complement current analysts and expert consensus on Alcon Inc. Our trade advice engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investors' current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Alcon is not overpriced, please confirm all Alcon Inc fundamentals, including its profit margin, shares owned by insiders, price to book, as well as the relationship between the current valuation and number of shares shorted . Given that Alcon Inc has a price to earning of 113.14 X, we suggest you to validate Alcon Inc market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Alcon Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Alcon Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Alcon Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Alcon Inc has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 65.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Kala Pharma sees large fall in operating expenses for H2, FY, extends expected cash runway - Seeking Alpha

Alcon current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Alcon analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Alcon analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price85.83
Target Median Price87.50
Target High Price95.00
Recommendation Mean2.30
Number Of Analyst Opinions12
Target Low Price69.00
Average Consensus Hold
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Alcon Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Alcon's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Alcon's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Alcon stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Alcon Inc price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Alcon returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Alcon stock.
Mean Return0.14Value At Risk-3.31
Potential Upside3.31Standard Deviation1.94
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Alcon historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Alcon Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(414 M)(524 M)(553 M)(473 M)(700 M)(755.26 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion1.33 B1.62 B1.46 B1.63 B1.22 B1.45 B
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents10 M55 M595 M735 M18 M18.47 M
Net Cash Flow Business Acquisitions and Disposals(303 M)(70 M)(239 M)(283 M)(254.7 M)(274.81 M)
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities(91 M)15 M3.29 B536 M(63 M)(64.66 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing(539 M)(78 M)659 M466 M(123 M)(132.71 M)
Net Cash Flow from Investing(679 M)(1 B)(1.01 B)(572 M)(1.2 B)(1.29 B)
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals(112 M)(50 M)(51 M)(11 M)(18 M)(19.42 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations1.22 B1.14 B920 M823 M1.34 B1.19 B

Alcon Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Alcon or Healthcare sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Alcon stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Alcon stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.09
β
Beta against DOW0.84
σ
Overall volatility
1.74
Ir
Information ratio 0.0417

Alcon Volatility Alert

Alcon Inc has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.33 and kurtosis of 1.75. However, we advise all investors to independently investigate Alcon Inc to ensure all accessible information is consistent with the expectations about its upside potential and future expected returns. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Alcon's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Alcon's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Alcon Implied Volatility

Alcon's implied volatility" href="/stock-options/ALC/Alcon-Inc">Alcon's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alcon Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alcon's implied volatility" href="/stock-options/ALC/Alcon-Inc">Alcon's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alcon stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alcon's options" href="/stock-options/ALC/Alcon-Inc">Alcon's options are near their expiration.

Alcon Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Alcon's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Alcon's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Alcon and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Alcon or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Alcon's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alcon by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Alcon to competition
FundamentalsAlconPeer Average
Return On Equity2.40 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset2.19 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin5.38 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin24.90 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation41.87 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding490.1 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders0.06 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions64.68 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted4.9 M4.71 M
Price to Earning113.14 X28.72 X
Price to Book1.94 X9.51 X
Price to Sales4.34 X11.42 X
Revenue8.55 B9.43 B
Gross Profit4.7 B27.38 B
EBITDA2.13 B3.9 B
Net Income460 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents961 M2.7 B
Cash per Share1.96 X5.01 X
Total Debt4.47 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.23 %48.70 %
Current Ratio2.17 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share38.96 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations1.26 B971.22 M
Short Ratio6.97 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share0.67 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth5.92 X4.89 X
Number of Employees24 K18.84 K
Beta0.62-0.15
Market Capitalization37.1 B19.03 B
Total Asset509.22 M29.47 B
Retained Earnings28.5 M9.33 B
Working Capital(148.99 M)1.48 B
Current Asset33.24 M9.34 B

Alcon Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Alcon . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Accumulation Distribution12373.61
Daily Balance Of Power0.4435
Rate Of Daily Change1.01
Day Median Price69.61
Day Typical Price69.76
Market Facilitation Index0.0
Price Action Indicator0.72

About Alcon Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Alcon Inc? Buying financial instruments such as Alcon Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Alcon investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Current Assets4.24 B4.99 B5.39 B5.09 B
Total Assets27.66 B27.6 B28 B26.38 B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Alcon in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run SRI Sustainable Growth Thematic Idea Now

SRI Sustainable Growth
SRI Sustainable Growth Theme
Socially responsible investments that include companies making a positive, sustainable or social impact and exclude those making a negative impact. The SRI Sustainable Growth theme has 47 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize SRI Sustainable Growth Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Please continue to Alcon Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Alcon Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alcon's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

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When running Alcon Inc price analysis, check to measure Alcon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcon is operating at the current time. Most of Alcon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alcon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alcon. If investors know Alcon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alcon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.0
Market Capitalization
34.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.13
Return On Assets
0.0219
Return On Equity
0.024
The market value of Alcon Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alcon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.