Alcoa Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

AA
 Stock
  

USD 45.58  2.04  4.28%   

Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon and your highly speculative risk level, our recommendation regarding Alcoa Corp is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Alcoa Corp buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AA positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Alcoa Corp's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
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The advice is provided from Alcoa Corp's buy-and-hold perspective. Please continue to Alcoa Corp Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Alcoa and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Alcoa Corp.

Execute Alcoa Corp Buy or Sell Advice

The Alcoa recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Alcoa Corp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Alcoa Corp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Alcoa Corp's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Alcoa CorpBuy Alcoa Corp
Strong Hold

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Under hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds of Distress

Below AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Actively responds to the marketDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

StrongDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Alcoa Corp has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.32), Jensen Alpha of (0.62), Total Risk Alpha of (0.40) and Treynor Ratio of (0.52)
Alcoa Corp advice module can be used to check and cross-verify current investment recommendation provided by analysts analyzing the company's potential to grow using all of fundamental, technical, data market data available at the time. To make sure Alcoa Corp is not overpriced, please confirm all Alcoa Corp fundamentals, including its profit margin, shares owned by insiders, price to book, as well as the relationship between the current valuation and number of shares shorted . Given that Alcoa Corp has a price to earning of 12.52 X, we suggest you to validate Alcoa Corp market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Alcoa Corp Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Alcoa Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Alcoa Corp has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Alcoa Corp has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 85.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.marketbeat.com: Alcoa Co. Receives Average Recommendation of Hold from Brokerages - MarketBeat

Alcoa Corp current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Alcoa analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Alcoa analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price82.95
Target Median Price84.00
Target High Price104.00
Recommendation Mean2.10
Number Of Analyst Opinions11
Target Low Price54.00
Average Consensus Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Alcoa Corp Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Alcoa Corp's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Alcoa Corp's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Alcoa Corp stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Alcoa Corp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Alcoa Corp returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Alcoa Corp stock.
Mean Return-0.97Value At Risk-6.7
Potential Upside5.10Standard Deviation4.25
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Alcoa Corp historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Alcoa Corp Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(405 M)(399 M)(379 M)(353 M)(390 M)(420.79 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion752 M733 M713 M653 M664 M676.63 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents506 M(249 M)(233 M)727 M314 M279.51 M
Net Cash Flow Business Acquisitions and Disposals245 M1,000 K23 M198 M966 M1.04 B
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares43 M(27 M)2 M1,000 K(125 M)(128.29 M)
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities(32 M)425 M(7 M)738 M(799 M)(820.03 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing749 M(506 M)(288 M)514 M(1.16 B)(1.19 B)
Net Cash Flow from Investing(226 M)(405 M)(468 M)(167 M)565 M609.61 M
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals(66 M)(7 M)(112 M)(12 M)(11 M)(11.87 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations1.22 B448 M686 M394 M920 M839.94 M
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash(38 M)13 M14 M(4 M)(13 M)(14.03 M)
Share Based Compensation35 M28 M24 M30 M25 M34 M

Alcoa Corp Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Alcoa Corp or Basic Materials sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Alcoa Corp stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Alcoa stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.62
β
Beta against DOW1.88
σ
Overall volatility
4.35
Ir
Information ratio -0.19

Alcoa Corp Volatility Alert

Alcoa Corp exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.93 and kurtosis of 2.25. However, we advise investors to further study Alcoa Corp technical indicators to make sure all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Alcoa Corp's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Alcoa Corp's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Alcoa Corp Implied Volatility

Alcoa Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alcoa Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alcoa Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alcoa Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alcoa Corp's options are near their expiration.

Alcoa Corp Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Alcoa Corp's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Alcoa Corp's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Alcoa Corp and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Alcoa Corp or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Alcoa Corp's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alcoa Corp by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Alcoa Corp to competition
FundamentalsAlcoa CorpPeer Average
Return On Equity16.24 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset10.69 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin5.75 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin26.13 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation11.18 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding184.45 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders0.85 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions85.14 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted8.67 M4.71 M
Price to Earning12.52 X28.72 X
Price to Book1.92 X9.51 X
Price to Sales0.70 X11.42 X
Revenue12.57 B9.43 B
Gross Profit3.05 B27.38 B
EBITDA3.29 B3.9 B
Net Income723 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents1.55 B2.7 B
Cash per Share8.43 X5.01 X
Total Debt1.82 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.29 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.62 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share24.83 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations948 M971.22 M
Short Ratio1.16 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share3.80 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth0.02 X4.89 X
Number of Employees12.2 K18.84 K
Beta2.35-0.15
Market Capitalization8.78 B19.03 B
Total Asset16.41 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings(569.61 M)9.33 B
Working Capital162 M1.48 B
Current Asset2.57 B9.34 B
   Acquisition by Roberts Jackson Prince of 2767 shares of Alcoa Corp subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

About Alcoa Corp Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Alcoa Corp? Buying financial instruments such as Alcoa Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Alcoa Corp investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Receivables556 M884 M791.37 M
Inventories1.4 B1.96 B1.66 B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Alcoa Corp in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Beers Thematic Idea Now

Beers
Beers Theme
Companies involved in production and distribution of domestic and international beer. The Beers theme has 0 constituents.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Beers Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Please continue to Alcoa Corp Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Alcoa Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alcoa Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

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Is Alcoa Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alcoa Corp. If investors know Alcoa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alcoa Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alcoa Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.