Exxon Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 92.32

XOM
 Stock
  

USD 85.75  4.82  5.32%   

Exxon's future price is the expected price of Exxon instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Exxon Mobil Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Exxon's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Exxon Mobil Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Exxon based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Exxon Mobil Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-09-30 CALL at $86.0 is a CALL option contract on Exxon's common stock with a strick price of 86.0 expiring on 2022-09-30. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-22 at 10:23:33 for $5.72 and, as of today, has 6 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $5.1, and an ask price of $5.4. The implied volatility as of the 24th of September is 44.0931. View All Exxon options

Closest to current price Exxon long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Check out Exxon Backtesting, Exxon Valuation, Exxon Correlation, Exxon Hype Analysis, Exxon Volatility, Exxon History as well as Exxon Performance. Please specify Exxon time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Exxon odds to be computed.

Exxon Target Price Odds to finish over 92.32

The tendency of Exxon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 92.32  or more in 90 days
 85.75 90 days 92.32 
about 40.46
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Exxon to move over $ 92.32  or more in 90 days from now is about 40.46 (This Exxon Mobil Corp probability density function shows the probability of Exxon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Exxon Mobil Corp price to stay between its current price of $ 85.75  and $ 92.32  at the end of the 90-day period is about 48.82 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Exxon has a beta of 0.65. This entails as returns on the market go up, Exxon average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Exxon Mobil Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0076, implying that it can generate a 0.007585 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Exxon Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Exxon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exxon Mobil Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Exxon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Exxon in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
83.6485.7687.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
64.3466.4694.33
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
48.0070.32100.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Exxon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Exxon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Exxon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Exxon Mobil Corp.

Exxon Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Exxon is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Exxon's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Exxon Mobil Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Exxon within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.007585
β
Beta against DOW0.65
σ
Overall volatility
4.43
Ir
Information ratio 0.011464

Exxon Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Exxon for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Exxon Mobil Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Exxon Mobil Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 59.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
On 9th of September 2022 Exxon paid $ 0.88 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from Macroaxis: Will holding Exxon be justified in October 2022

Exxon Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Exxon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Exxon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exxon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date11th of August 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out0.96%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate3.51
Short Percent Of Float0.96%
Float Shares4.16B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day19.66M
Shares Short Prior Month36.38M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month20.45M
Date Short Interest31st of August 2022

Exxon Technical Analysis

Exxon's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Exxon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Exxon Mobil Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Exxon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Exxon Predictive Forecast Models

Exxon time-series forecasting models is one of many Exxon's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Exxon's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Exxon Mobil Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Exxon for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Exxon Mobil Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Exxon Alerts

Exxon Alerts and Suggestions

Exxon Mobil Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 59.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
On 9th of September 2022 Exxon paid $ 0.88 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from Macroaxis: Will holding Exxon be justified in October 2022
Check out Exxon Backtesting, Exxon Valuation, Exxon Correlation, Exxon Hype Analysis, Exxon Volatility, Exxon History as well as Exxon Performance. You can also try Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Exxon Mobil Corp price analysis, check to measure Exxon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Exxon is operating at the current time. Most of Exxon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Exxon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Exxon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Exxon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Exxon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Exxon. If investors know Exxon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Exxon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Exxon Mobil Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Exxon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Exxon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Exxon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Exxon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Exxon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Exxon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Exxon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Exxon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.