General Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 40.78

XGAMX
 Fund
  

USD 40.78  0.46  1.14%   

General American's future price is the expected price of General American instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of General American Investors performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Check out General American Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, General American Correlation, General American Hype Analysis, General American Volatility, General American History as well as General American Performance. Please specify General American time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like General American odds to be computed.

General American Target Price Odds to finish over 40.78

The tendency of General Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 40.78 90 days 40.78 
about 97.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of General American to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 97.0 (This General American Investors probability density function shows the probability of General Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.16 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, General American will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0218, implying that it can generate a 0.0218 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   General American Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for General American

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as General American Inv. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of General American's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of General American in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
38.9940.3241.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
39.8941.2242.55
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
38.1039.4240.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
40.0440.4740.69
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as General American. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against General American's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, General American's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in General American Inv.

General American Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. General American is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the General American's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold General American Investors, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of General American within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.021837
β
Beta against DOW1.16
σ
Overall volatility
1.72
Ir
Information ratio 0.00713

General American Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of General American for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for General American Inv can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
General American Inv generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

General American Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of General Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential General American's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. General American's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

General American Technical Analysis

General American's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. General Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of General American Investors. In general, you should focus on analyzing General Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

General American Predictive Forecast Models

General American time-series forecasting models is one of many General American's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary General American's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about General American Inv

Checking the ongoing alerts about General American for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for General American Inv help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

General American Alerts

General American Alerts and Suggestions

General American Inv generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Check out General American Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, General American Correlation, General American Hype Analysis, General American Volatility, General American History as well as General American Performance. You can also try Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running General American Inv price analysis, check to measure General American's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy General American is operating at the current time. Most of General American's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of General American's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move General American's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of General American to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between General American's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine General American value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, General American's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.