McDonalds Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 271.77

MCD
 Stock
  

USD 271.77  0.13  0.0478%   

McDonalds' future price is the expected price of McDonalds instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of McDonalds performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 27.31, whereas Price to Book Value is forecasted to decline to (44.68) .
  
McDonalds' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on McDonalds. Implied volatility approximates the future value of McDonalds based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in McDonalds over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-09 CALL at $272.5 is a CALL option contract on McDonalds' common stock with a strick price of 272.5 expiring on 2022-12-09. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-05 at 15:58:39 for $1.48 and, as of today, has 3 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.37, and an ask price of $1.52. The implied volatility as of the 6th of December is 19.1579. View All McDonalds options

Closest to current price McDonalds long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see McDonalds Backtesting, McDonalds Valuation, McDonalds Correlation, McDonalds Hype Analysis, McDonalds Volatility, McDonalds History as well as McDonalds Performance. Please specify McDonalds time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like McDonalds odds to be computed.

McDonalds Target Price Odds to finish over 271.77

The tendency of McDonalds Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 271.77 90 days 271.77 
about 15.1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of McDonalds to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 15.1 (This McDonalds probability density function shows the probability of McDonalds Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon McDonalds has a beta of 0.46. This indicates as returns on the market go up, McDonalds average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding McDonalds will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0608, implying that it can generate a 0.0608 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   McDonalds Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for McDonalds

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as McDonalds. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of McDonalds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of McDonalds in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
270.67271.94273.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
233.88235.15297.94
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
279.50280.78282.05
Details
24 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
237.00275.29314.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as McDonalds. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against McDonalds' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, McDonalds' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in McDonalds.

McDonalds Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. McDonalds is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the McDonalds' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold McDonalds, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of McDonalds within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.06
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.46
σ
Overall volatility
14.54
Ir
Information ratio 0.017194

McDonalds Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of McDonalds for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for McDonalds can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: McDonalds breaks out to a new high. A time to buy the stock - Invezz

McDonalds Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of McDonalds Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential McDonalds' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. McDonalds' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding751600000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments4709200000.00

McDonalds Technical Analysis

McDonalds' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. McDonalds Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of McDonalds. In general, you should focus on analyzing McDonalds Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

McDonalds Predictive Forecast Models

McDonalds time-series forecasting models is one of many McDonalds' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary McDonalds' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about McDonalds

Checking the ongoing alerts about McDonalds for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for McDonalds help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: McDonalds breaks out to a new high. A time to buy the stock - Invezz
Additionally, see McDonalds Backtesting, McDonalds Valuation, McDonalds Correlation, McDonalds Hype Analysis, McDonalds Volatility, McDonalds History as well as McDonalds Performance. Note that the McDonalds information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other McDonalds' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

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When running McDonalds price analysis, check to measure McDonalds' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy McDonalds is operating at the current time. Most of McDonalds' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of McDonalds' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move McDonalds' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of McDonalds to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is McDonalds' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of McDonalds. If investors know McDonalds will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about McDonalds listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.06) 
Market Capitalization
198.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.05) 
Return On Assets
0.13
The market value of McDonalds is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of McDonalds that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of McDonalds' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is McDonalds' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because McDonalds' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect McDonalds' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between McDonalds' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine McDonalds value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, McDonalds' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.