Macerich Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.89

MAC
 Stock
  

USD 12.27  0.25  2.00%   

Macerich's future price is the expected price of Macerich instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Macerich Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Book Value is expected to grow to 1.50. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 266.35.
  
Macerich's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Macerich Company. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Macerich based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Macerich Company over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $12.0 is a CALL option contract on Macerich's common stock with a strick price of 12.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-01 at 12:31:01 for $0.7 and, as of today, has 11 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.7, and an ask price of $0.85. The implied volatility as of the 5th of December is 51.4811. View All Macerich options

Closest to current price Macerich long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Macerich Backtesting, Macerich Valuation, Macerich Correlation, Macerich Hype Analysis, Macerich Volatility, Macerich History as well as Macerich Performance. Please specify Macerich time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Macerich odds to be computed.

Macerich Target Price Odds to finish below 4.89

The tendency of Macerich Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 4.89  or more in 90 days
 12.27 90 days 4.89 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Macerich to drop to $ 4.89  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Macerich Company probability density function shows the probability of Macerich Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Macerich price to stay between $ 4.89  and its current price of $12.27 at the end of the 90-day period is about 86.37 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.59 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Macerich will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.316, implying that it can generate a 0.32 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Macerich Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Macerich

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Macerich. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Macerich's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Macerich in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
9.4612.7215.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
11.3614.6217.88
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
14.7519.8027.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (8)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.951.972.01
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Macerich. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Macerich's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Macerich's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Macerich.

Macerich Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Macerich is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Macerich's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Macerich Company, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Macerich within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.32
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.59
σ
Overall volatility
1.86
Ir
Information ratio 0.12

Macerich Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Macerich for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Macerich can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Macerich appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company has 4.53 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.53, which is OK given its current industry classification. Macerich has a current ratio of 0.44, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Macerich until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Macerich's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Macerich sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Macerich to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Macerich's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Macerich has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 84.0% of Macerich shares are owned by institutional investors
On 2nd of December 2022 Macerich paid $ 0.17 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Sale by Christopher Zecchini of 2000 shares of Macerich

Macerich Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Macerich Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Macerich's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Macerich's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding213214000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments1430025000.00

Macerich Technical Analysis

Macerich's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Macerich Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Macerich Company. In general, you should focus on analyzing Macerich Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Macerich Predictive Forecast Models

Macerich time-series forecasting models is one of many Macerich's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Macerich's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Macerich

Checking the ongoing alerts about Macerich for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Macerich help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Macerich appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company has 4.53 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.53, which is OK given its current industry classification. Macerich has a current ratio of 0.44, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Macerich until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Macerich's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Macerich sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Macerich to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Macerich's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Macerich has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 84.0% of Macerich shares are owned by institutional investors
On 2nd of December 2022 Macerich paid $ 0.17 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Sale by Christopher Zecchini of 2000 shares of Macerich
Additionally, see Macerich Backtesting, Macerich Valuation, Macerich Correlation, Macerich Hype Analysis, Macerich Volatility, Macerich History as well as Macerich Performance. Note that the Macerich information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Macerich's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

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When running Macerich price analysis, check to measure Macerich's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Macerich is operating at the current time. Most of Macerich's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Macerich's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Macerich's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Macerich to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Macerich's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Macerich. If investors know Macerich will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Macerich listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Macerich is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Macerich that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Macerich's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Macerich's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Macerich's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Macerich's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Macerich's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Macerich value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Macerich's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.