Jefferies Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 35.55

JEF
 Stock
  

USD 35.55  0.36  1.00%   

Jefferies Financial's future price is the expected price of Jefferies Financial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Jefferies Financial Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. As of December 7, 2022, Price to Book Value is expected to decline to 0.83. In addition to that, Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to decline to 50.95.
  
Jefferies Financial's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Jefferies Financial Group. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Jefferies Financial based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Jefferies Financial Group over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $35.0 is a CALL option contract on Jefferies Financial's common stock with a strick price of 35.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-02 at 12:29:31 for $3.0 and, as of today, has 9 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.3, and an ask price of $1.45. The implied volatility as of the 7th of December is 37.8643. View All Jefferies options

Closest to current price Jefferies long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please see Jefferies Financial Backtesting, Jefferies Financial Valuation, Jefferies Financial Correlation, Jefferies Financial Hype Analysis, Jefferies Financial Volatility, Jefferies Financial History as well as Jefferies Financial Performance. Please specify Jefferies Financial time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Jefferies Financial odds to be computed.

Jefferies Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 35.55

The tendency of Jefferies Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 35.55 90 days 35.55 
about 22.55
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Jefferies Financial to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 22.55 (This Jefferies Financial Group probability density function shows the probability of Jefferies Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.27 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Jefferies Financial will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1431, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Jefferies Financial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Jefferies Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jefferies Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jefferies Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Jefferies Financial in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
33.1135.3837.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
32.0341.7644.03
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
40.0047.6757.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.763.843.91
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Jefferies Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Jefferies Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Jefferies Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Jefferies Financial.

Jefferies Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Jefferies Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Jefferies Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Jefferies Financial Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Jefferies Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.14
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.27
σ
Overall volatility
2.68
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Jefferies Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Jefferies Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Jefferies Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 66.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 29th of November 2022 Jefferies Financial paid $ 0.3 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Flutter Entertainment PT Set at 140 by UBS Group - MarketBeat

Jefferies Financial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Jefferies Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Jefferies Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Jefferies Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding271501000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments10755133000.00

Jefferies Financial Technical Analysis

Jefferies Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Jefferies Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Jefferies Financial Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Jefferies Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Jefferies Financial Predictive Forecast Models

Jefferies Financial time-series forecasting models is one of many Jefferies Financial's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Jefferies Financial's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Jefferies Financial

Checking the ongoing alerts about Jefferies Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Jefferies Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 66.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 29th of November 2022 Jefferies Financial paid $ 0.3 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Flutter Entertainment PT Set at 140 by UBS Group - MarketBeat
Please see Jefferies Financial Backtesting, Jefferies Financial Valuation, Jefferies Financial Correlation, Jefferies Financial Hype Analysis, Jefferies Financial Volatility, Jefferies Financial History as well as Jefferies Financial Performance. Note that the Jefferies Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Jefferies Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Complementary Tools for Jefferies Stock analysis

When running Jefferies Financial price analysis, check to measure Jefferies Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Jefferies Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Jefferies Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Jefferies Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Jefferies Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Jefferies Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Jefferies Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Jefferies Financial. If investors know Jefferies will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Jefferies Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.48) 
Market Capitalization
8.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.21) 
Return On Assets
0.0172
Return On Equity
0.0924
The market value of Jefferies Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Jefferies that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Jefferies Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Jefferies Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Jefferies Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Jefferies Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Jefferies Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Jefferies Financial value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Jefferies Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.