Goosehead Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 36.78

GSHD
 Stock
  

USD 39.72  0.35  0.87%   

Goosehead Insurance's future price is the expected price of Goosehead Insurance instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Goosehead Insurance performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 501.25, whereas Price to Book Value is forecasted to decline to (370.64) .
  
Goosehead Insurance's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Goosehead Insurance. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Goosehead Insurance based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Goosehead Insurance over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $40.0 is a CALL option contract on Goosehead Insurance's common stock with a strick price of 40.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-21 at 15:40:37 for $1.7 and, as of today, has 20 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.3, and an ask price of $5.0. The implied volatility as of the 26th of November is 73.9678. View All Goosehead options

Closest to current price Goosehead long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Goosehead Insurance Backtesting, Goosehead Insurance Valuation, Goosehead Insurance Correlation, Goosehead Insurance Hype Analysis, Goosehead Insurance Volatility, Goosehead Insurance History as well as Goosehead Insurance Performance. Please specify Goosehead Insurance time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Goosehead Insurance odds to be computed.

Goosehead Insurance Target Price Odds to finish over 36.78

The tendency of Goosehead Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 36.78  in 90 days
 39.72 90 days 36.78 
about 67.37
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Goosehead Insurance to stay above $ 36.78  in 90 days from now is about 67.37 (This Goosehead Insurance probability density function shows the probability of Goosehead Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Goosehead Insurance price to stay between $ 36.78  and its current price of $39.72 at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.86 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.92 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Goosehead Insurance will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Goosehead Insurance is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Goosehead Insurance Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Goosehead Insurance

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Goosehead Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Goosehead Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Goosehead Insurance in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
33.9939.5945.19
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
36.0667.0472.64
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
33.5439.1444.74
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
130.00151.71175.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Goosehead Insurance. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Goosehead Insurance's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Goosehead Insurance's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Goosehead Insurance.

Goosehead Insurance Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Goosehead Insurance is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Goosehead Insurance's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Goosehead Insurance, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Goosehead Insurance within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.6
β
Beta against DOW1.92
σ
Overall volatility
7.13
Ir
Information ratio -0.09

Goosehead Insurance Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Goosehead Insurance for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Goosehead Insurance can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Goosehead Insurance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Goosehead Insurance has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Goosehead Insurance is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Goosehead Insurance has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from news.google.com: SHAREHOLDER ALERT Purcell Lefkowitz LLP Is Investigating Goosehead Insurance, Inc. for Potential Breaches of Fiduciary Duty By Its Board of Directors - Marketscreener.com

Goosehead Insurance Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Goosehead Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Goosehead Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Goosehead Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out10.21%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.74
Short Percent Of Float10.72%
Float Shares20.5M
Shares Short Prior Month2.3M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day302.14k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month368.61k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.87%

Goosehead Insurance Technical Analysis

Goosehead Insurance's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Goosehead Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Goosehead Insurance. In general, you should focus on analyzing Goosehead Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Goosehead Insurance Predictive Forecast Models

Goosehead Insurance time-series forecasting models is one of many Goosehead Insurance's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Goosehead Insurance's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Goosehead Insurance

Checking the ongoing alerts about Goosehead Insurance for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Goosehead Insurance help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Goosehead Insurance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Goosehead Insurance has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Goosehead Insurance is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Goosehead Insurance has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from news.google.com: SHAREHOLDER ALERT Purcell Lefkowitz LLP Is Investigating Goosehead Insurance, Inc. for Potential Breaches of Fiduciary Duty By Its Board of Directors - Marketscreener.com
Please check Goosehead Insurance Backtesting, Goosehead Insurance Valuation, Goosehead Insurance Correlation, Goosehead Insurance Hype Analysis, Goosehead Insurance Volatility, Goosehead Insurance History as well as Goosehead Insurance Performance. Note that the Goosehead Insurance information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Goosehead Insurance's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

Complementary Tools for Goosehead Stock analysis

When running Goosehead Insurance price analysis, check to measure Goosehead Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Goosehead Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Goosehead Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Goosehead Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Goosehead Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Goosehead Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Goosehead Insurance's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Goosehead Insurance. If investors know Goosehead will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Goosehead Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.53) 
Market Capitalization
1.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.39
Return On Assets
0.0091
The market value of Goosehead Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Goosehead that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Goosehead Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Goosehead Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Goosehead Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Goosehead Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Goosehead Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Goosehead Insurance value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Goosehead Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.