AVIS BUDGET (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 0.0

AVIS BUDGET's future price is the expected price of AVIS BUDGET instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of AVIS BUDGET GROUP performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Continue to AVIS BUDGET Backtesting, AVIS BUDGET Valuation, AVIS BUDGET Correlation, AVIS BUDGET Hype Analysis, AVIS BUDGET Volatility, AVIS BUDGET History as well as AVIS BUDGET Performance. Please specify AVIS BUDGET time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like AVIS BUDGET odds to be computed.

AVIS BUDGET Target Price Odds to finish over 0.0

The tendency of AVIS BUDGET Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 0.00 90 days 0.00 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AVIS BUDGET to move above the current price in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This AVIS BUDGET GROUP probability density function shows the probability of AVIS BUDGET Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.15 suggesting AVIS BUDGET GROUP market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, AVIS BUDGET is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.2465, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   AVIS BUDGET Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for AVIS BUDGET

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AVIS BUDGET GROUP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of AVIS BUDGET's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of AVIS BUDGET in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
84.1884.1884.18
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
134.47213.71292.95
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AVIS BUDGET. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AVIS BUDGET's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AVIS BUDGET's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in AVIS BUDGET GROUP.

AVIS BUDGET Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AVIS BUDGET is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AVIS BUDGET's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AVIS BUDGET GROUP, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AVIS BUDGET within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.25
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.15
σ
Overall volatility
32.02
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

AVIS BUDGET Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AVIS BUDGET for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AVIS BUDGET GROUP can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
AVIS BUDGET GROUP generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
AVIS BUDGET GROUP has high historical volatility and very poor performance
AVIS BUDGET GROUP has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock

AVIS BUDGET Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AVIS BUDGET Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AVIS BUDGET's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AVIS BUDGET's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding56000000.00
Short Long Term Debt19000000.00

AVIS BUDGET Technical Analysis

AVIS BUDGET's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AVIS BUDGET Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AVIS BUDGET GROUP. In general, you should focus on analyzing AVIS BUDGET Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

AVIS BUDGET Predictive Forecast Models

AVIS BUDGET time-series forecasting models is one of many AVIS BUDGET's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary AVIS BUDGET's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about AVIS BUDGET GROUP

Checking the ongoing alerts about AVIS BUDGET for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AVIS BUDGET GROUP help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
AVIS BUDGET GROUP generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
AVIS BUDGET GROUP has high historical volatility and very poor performance
AVIS BUDGET GROUP has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Continue to AVIS BUDGET Backtesting, AVIS BUDGET Valuation, AVIS BUDGET Correlation, AVIS BUDGET Hype Analysis, AVIS BUDGET Volatility, AVIS BUDGET History as well as AVIS BUDGET Performance. You can also try Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running AVIS BUDGET GROUP price analysis, check to measure AVIS BUDGET's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AVIS BUDGET is operating at the current time. Most of AVIS BUDGET's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AVIS BUDGET's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AVIS BUDGET's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AVIS BUDGET to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between AVIS BUDGET's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AVIS BUDGET value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AVIS BUDGET's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.