CNA Financial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 38.26

CNA
 Stock
  

USD 41.95  0.26  0.62%   

CNA Financial's future price is the expected price of CNA Financial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of CNA Financial performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Book Value is expected to grow to 1.00. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 11.08.
  
CNA Financial's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on CNA Financial. Implied volatility approximates the future value of CNA Financial based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in CNA Financial over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $40.0 is a CALL option contract on CNA Financial's common stock with a strick price of 40.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-21 at 13:00:52 for $2.8 and, as of today, has 12 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.25, and an ask price of $4.5. The implied volatility as of the 4th of December is 56.1191. View All CNA Financial options

Closest to current price CNA Financial long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to CNA Financial Backtesting, CNA Financial Valuation, CNA Financial Correlation, CNA Financial Hype Analysis, CNA Financial Volatility, CNA Financial History as well as CNA Financial Performance. Please specify CNA Financial time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like CNA Financial odds to be computed.

CNA Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 38.26

The tendency of CNA Financial Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 38.26  in 90 days
 41.95 90 days 38.26 
about 77.41
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CNA Financial to stay above $ 38.26  in 90 days from now is about 77.41 (This CNA Financial probability density function shows the probability of CNA Financial Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CNA Financial price to stay between $ 38.26  and its current price of $41.95 at the end of the 90-day period is about 64.89 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon CNA Financial has a beta of 0.76 suggesting as returns on the market go up, CNA Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding CNA Financial will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0738, implying that it can generate a 0.0738 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   CNA Financial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for CNA Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CNA Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of CNA Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of CNA Financial in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
40.8442.3943.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
37.9950.1151.66
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
48.0050.0052.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
4.004.034.05
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CNA Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CNA Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CNA Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in CNA Financial.

CNA Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CNA Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CNA Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CNA Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CNA Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.07
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.76
σ
Overall volatility
1.94
Ir
Information ratio 0.033131

CNA Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CNA Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CNA Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 2.78 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.34, which is OK given its current industry classification. CNA Financial has a current ratio of 0.34, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist CNA Financial until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, CNA Financial's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like CNA Financial sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for CNA Financial to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about CNA Financial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
CNA Financial has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 99.0% of CNA Financial shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 1st of December 2022 CNA Financial paid $ 0.4 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Taiwan shares close higher on liquidity-driven buying - Focus Taiwan

CNA Financial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CNA Financial Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CNA Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CNA Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding272800000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments536000000.00

CNA Financial Technical Analysis

CNA Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CNA Financial Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CNA Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing CNA Financial Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

CNA Financial Predictive Forecast Models

CNA Financial time-series forecasting models is one of many CNA Financial's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary CNA Financial's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about CNA Financial

Checking the ongoing alerts about CNA Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CNA Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 2.78 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.34, which is OK given its current industry classification. CNA Financial has a current ratio of 0.34, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist CNA Financial until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, CNA Financial's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like CNA Financial sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for CNA Financial to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about CNA Financial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
CNA Financial has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 99.0% of CNA Financial shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 1st of December 2022 CNA Financial paid $ 0.4 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Taiwan shares close higher on liquidity-driven buying - Focus Taiwan
Continue to CNA Financial Backtesting, CNA Financial Valuation, CNA Financial Correlation, CNA Financial Hype Analysis, CNA Financial Volatility, CNA Financial History as well as CNA Financial Performance. You can also try Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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When running CNA Financial price analysis, check to measure CNA Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CNA Financial is operating at the current time. Most of CNA Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CNA Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CNA Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CNA Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CNA Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CNA Financial. If investors know CNA Financial will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CNA Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.50) 
Market Capitalization
11.4 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.001) 
Return On Assets
0.0121
Return On Equity
0.0879
The market value of CNA Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CNA Financial that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CNA Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CNA Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CNA Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CNA Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CNA Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine CNA Financial value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CNA Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.