Atmos Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 116.54

ATO
 Stock
  

USD 116.54  0.95  0.81%   

Atmos Energy's future price is the expected price of Atmos Energy instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Atmos Energy performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Atmos Energy Price to Book Value is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current Price to Book Value is estimated at 1.93. Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to rise to 21.20 this year, although the value of Price to Sales Ratio will most likely fall to 3.47.
  
Atmos Energy's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Atmos Energy. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Atmos Energy based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Atmos Energy over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $115.0 is a CALL option contract on Atmos Energy's common stock with a strick price of 115.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-29 at 10:01:41 for $4.49 and, as of today, has 13 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.75, and an ask price of $4.6. The implied volatility as of the 3rd of December is 20.2713. View All Atmos options

Closest to current price Atmos long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Atmos Energy Backtesting, Atmos Energy Valuation, Atmos Energy Correlation, Atmos Energy Hype Analysis, Atmos Energy Volatility, Atmos Energy History as well as Atmos Energy Performance. Please specify Atmos Energy time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Atmos Energy odds to be computed.

Atmos Energy Target Price Odds to finish over 116.54

The tendency of Atmos Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 116.54 90 days 116.54 
about 11.97
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Atmos Energy to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 11.97 (This Atmos Energy probability density function shows the probability of Atmos Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Atmos Energy has a beta of 1.0. This suggests Atmos Energy market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Atmos Energy is expected to follow. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Atmos Energy is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Atmos Energy Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Atmos Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Atmos Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Atmos Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Atmos Energy in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
114.66116.66118.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
110.78112.78128.19
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
101.00112.83126.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
5.415.495.53
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Atmos Energy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Atmos Energy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Atmos Energy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Atmos Energy.

Atmos Energy Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Atmos Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Atmos Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Atmos Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Atmos Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.04
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.00
σ
Overall volatility
6.62
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

Atmos Energy Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Atmos Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Atmos Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Atmos Energy has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Morgan Stanley Hikes Price Target on Atmos Energy to 120 From 111, Keeps Overweight Rating - Marketscreener.com

Atmos Energy Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Atmos Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Atmos Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Atmos Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding129834000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments51554000.00

Atmos Energy Technical Analysis

Atmos Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Atmos Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Atmos Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Atmos Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Atmos Energy Predictive Forecast Models

Atmos Energy time-series forecasting models is one of many Atmos Energy's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Atmos Energy's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Atmos Energy

Checking the ongoing alerts about Atmos Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Atmos Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Atmos Energy has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Morgan Stanley Hikes Price Target on Atmos Energy to 120 From 111, Keeps Overweight Rating - Marketscreener.com
Please continue to Atmos Energy Backtesting, Atmos Energy Valuation, Atmos Energy Correlation, Atmos Energy Hype Analysis, Atmos Energy Volatility, Atmos Energy History as well as Atmos Energy Performance. You can also try Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.

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When running Atmos Energy price analysis, check to measure Atmos Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Atmos Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Atmos Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Atmos Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Atmos Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Atmos Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Atmos Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Atmos Energy. If investors know Atmos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Atmos Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.38
Market Capitalization
16.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.27
Return On Assets
0.0278
Return On Equity
0.0894
The market value of Atmos Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Atmos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Atmos Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Atmos Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Atmos Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Atmos Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Atmos Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Atmos Energy value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Atmos Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.