Algonquin Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 24.33

AQNA
 Stock
  

USD 23.91  0.30  1.24%   

Algonquin Power's future price is the expected price of Algonquin Power instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Algonquin Power Utilities performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Please continue to Algonquin Power Backtesting, Algonquin Power Valuation, Algonquin Power Correlation, Algonquin Power Hype Analysis, Algonquin Power Volatility, Algonquin Power History as well as Algonquin Power Performance. Please specify Algonquin Power time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Algonquin Power odds to be computed.

Algonquin Power Target Price Odds to finish below 24.33

The tendency of Algonquin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 24.33  after 90 days
 23.91 90 days 24.33 
about 80.55
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Algonquin Power to stay under $ 24.33  after 90 days from now is about 80.55 (This Algonquin Power Utilities probability density function shows the probability of Algonquin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Algonquin Power Utilities price to stay between its current price of $ 23.91  and $ 24.33  at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.58 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Algonquin Power has a beta of 0.4. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Algonquin Power average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Algonquin Power Utilities will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0082, implying that it can generate a 0.008218 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Algonquin Power Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Algonquin Power

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Algonquin Power Utilities. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Algonquin Power's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Algonquin Power in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
22.6423.9125.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
22.2123.4824.75
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
22.8924.1625.42
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
23.1823.9424.70
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Algonquin Power. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Algonquin Power's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Algonquin Power's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Algonquin Power Utilities.

Algonquin Power Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Algonquin Power is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Algonquin Power's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Algonquin Power Utilities, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Algonquin Power within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.008218
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.40
σ
Overall volatility
0.99
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

Algonquin Power Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Algonquin Power for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Algonquin Power Utilities can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Algonquin Power generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Latest headline from news.google.com: 4 Things to Know About Algonquin Stock in December 2022 - The Motley Fool Canada

Algonquin Power Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Algonquin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Algonquin Power's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Algonquin Power's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Dividends Paid204877000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments62485000.00

Algonquin Power Technical Analysis

Algonquin Power's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Algonquin Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Algonquin Power Utilities. In general, you should focus on analyzing Algonquin Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Algonquin Power Predictive Forecast Models

Algonquin Power time-series forecasting models is one of many Algonquin Power's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Algonquin Power's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Algonquin Power Utilities

Checking the ongoing alerts about Algonquin Power for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Algonquin Power Utilities help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Algonquin Power generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Latest headline from news.google.com: 4 Things to Know About Algonquin Stock in December 2022 - The Motley Fool Canada
Please continue to Algonquin Power Backtesting, Algonquin Power Valuation, Algonquin Power Correlation, Algonquin Power Hype Analysis, Algonquin Power Volatility, Algonquin Power History as well as Algonquin Power Performance. You can also try Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Algonquin Power Utilities price analysis, check to measure Algonquin Power's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Algonquin Power is operating at the current time. Most of Algonquin Power's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Algonquin Power's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Algonquin Power's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Algonquin Power to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Algonquin Power's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Algonquin Power. If investors know Algonquin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Algonquin Power listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Algonquin Power Utilities is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Algonquin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Algonquin Power's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Algonquin Power's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Algonquin Power's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Algonquin Power's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Algonquin Power's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Algonquin Power value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Algonquin Power's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.