American Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 8.96

APEI
 Stock
  

USD 13.16  0.14  1.08%   

American Public's future price is the expected price of American Public instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of American Public Education performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current Price to Book Value is estimated to increase to 1.51. The current Price to Earnings Ratio is estimated to increase to 23.65.
  
American Public's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on American Public Education. Implied volatility approximates the future value of American Public based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in American Public Education over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $12.5 is a CALL option contract on American Public's common stock with a strick price of 12.5 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-11 at 13:48:58 for $1.2 and, as of today, has 17 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.05, and an ask price of $1.4. The implied volatility as of the 29th of November is 36.1096. View All American options

Closest to current price American long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to American Public Backtesting, American Public Valuation, American Public Correlation, American Public Hype Analysis, American Public Volatility, American Public History as well as American Public Performance. Please specify American Public time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Public odds to be computed.

American Public Target Price Odds to finish over 8.96

The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 8.96  in 90 days
 13.16 90 days 8.96 
about 86.94
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Public to stay above $ 8.96  in 90 days from now is about 86.94 (This American Public Education probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Public Education price to stay between $ 8.96  and its current price of $13.16 at the end of the 90-day period is about 78.04 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days American Public has a beta of 0.64. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American Public average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Public Education will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.2754, implying that it can generate a 0.28 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   American Public Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for American Public

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Public Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Public's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Public in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
9.6213.1316.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
11.7918.8822.39
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
9.5013.0016.51
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
35.0037.3341.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Public. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Public's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Public's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Public Education.

American Public Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Public is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Public's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Public Education, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Public within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.28
β
Beta against DOW0.64
σ
Overall volatility
1.70
Ir
Information ratio 0.08

American Public Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Public for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Public Education can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
American Public has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 556.6 M. Net Loss for the year was (95.58 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 246.18 M.
Latest headline from news.google.com: Incentives can lead employees to cheat or lie at work - The Washington Post

American Public Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Public's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Public's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out4.75%
Short Percent Of Float5.79%
Float Shares15.66M
Shares Short Prior Month799.47k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day123.5k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month269.8k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022

American Public Technical Analysis

American Public's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Public Education. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

American Public Predictive Forecast Models

American Public time-series forecasting models is one of many American Public's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary American Public's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about American Public Education

Checking the ongoing alerts about American Public for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Public Education help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
American Public has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 556.6 M. Net Loss for the year was (95.58 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 246.18 M.
Latest headline from news.google.com: Incentives can lead employees to cheat or lie at work - The Washington Post
Please continue to American Public Backtesting, American Public Valuation, American Public Correlation, American Public Hype Analysis, American Public Volatility, American Public History as well as American Public Performance. Note that the American Public Education information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Public's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

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When running American Public Education price analysis, check to measure American Public's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Public is operating at the current time. Most of American Public's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Public's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Public's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Public to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Public's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Public. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Public listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.43) 
Market Capitalization
240.1 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.52
Return On Assets
0.0264
Return On Equity
(0.28) 
The market value of American Public Education is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Public's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Public's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Public's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Public's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Public's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Public value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Public's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.