American Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 10.96

AOUT
 Stock
  

USD 10.96  0.28  2.49%   

American Outdoor's future price is the expected price of American Outdoor instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of American Outdoor Brands performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
American Outdoor's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on American Outdoor Brands. Implied volatility approximates the future value of American Outdoor based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in American Outdoor Brands over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $10.0 is a CALL option contract on American Outdoor's common stock with a strick price of 10.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-02 at 14:54:38 for $1.3 and, as of today, has 11 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.3, and an ask price of $1.5. The implied volatility as of the 5th of December is 48.9174. View All American options

Closest to current price American long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to American Outdoor Backtesting, American Outdoor Valuation, American Outdoor Correlation, American Outdoor Hype Analysis, American Outdoor Volatility, American Outdoor History as well as American Outdoor Performance. Please specify American Outdoor time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Outdoor odds to be computed.

American Outdoor Target Price Odds to finish over 10.96

The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 10.96 90 days 10.96 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Outdoor to move above the current price in 90 days from now is near 1 (This American Outdoor Brands probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days American Outdoor has a beta of 0.42. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American Outdoor average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Outdoor Brands will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.4309, implying that it can generate a 0.43 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   American Outdoor Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for American Outdoor

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Outdoor Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Outdoor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Outdoor in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
7.1610.9014.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
9.8116.1019.84
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
28.0032.3337.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.891.941.97
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Outdoor. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Outdoor's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Outdoor's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Outdoor Brands.

American Outdoor Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Outdoor is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Outdoor's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Outdoor Brands, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Outdoor within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.43
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.42
σ
Overall volatility
0.52
Ir
Information ratio 0.1

American Outdoor Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Outdoor for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Outdoor Brands can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
American Outdoor appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 247.53 M. Net Loss for the year was (64.88 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 114.27 M.
American Outdoor Brands currently holds about 17.47 M in cash with (17.95 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.3.
Roughly 70.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies

American Outdoor Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Outdoor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Outdoor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding13930000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments19521000.00

American Outdoor Technical Analysis

American Outdoor's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Outdoor Brands. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

American Outdoor Predictive Forecast Models

American Outdoor time-series forecasting models is one of many American Outdoor's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary American Outdoor's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about American Outdoor Brands

Checking the ongoing alerts about American Outdoor for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Outdoor Brands help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
American Outdoor appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 247.53 M. Net Loss for the year was (64.88 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 114.27 M.
American Outdoor Brands currently holds about 17.47 M in cash with (17.95 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.3.
Roughly 70.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Please continue to American Outdoor Backtesting, American Outdoor Valuation, American Outdoor Correlation, American Outdoor Hype Analysis, American Outdoor Volatility, American Outdoor History as well as American Outdoor Performance. You can also try Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running American Outdoor Brands price analysis, check to measure American Outdoor's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Outdoor is operating at the current time. Most of American Outdoor's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Outdoor's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Outdoor's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Outdoor to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Outdoor's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Outdoor. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Outdoor listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.52) 
Market Capitalization
151.3 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.28) 
Return On Assets
0.0045
Return On Equity
(0.31) 
The market value of American Outdoor Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Outdoor's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Outdoor's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Outdoor's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Outdoor's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Outdoor's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Outdoor value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Outdoor's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.