American Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 16.34

AMPAX
 Fund
  

USD 16.34  0.68  4.34%   

American Beacon's future price is the expected price of American Beacon instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of American Beacon Mid-Cap performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Please continue to American Beacon Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, American Beacon Correlation, American Beacon Hype Analysis, American Beacon Volatility, American Beacon History as well as American Beacon Performance. Please specify American Beacon time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Beacon odds to be computed.

American Beacon Target Price Odds to finish over 16.34

The tendency of American Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 16.34 90 days 16.34 
about 75.03
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Beacon to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 75.03 (This American Beacon Mid-Cap probability density function shows the probability of American Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon American Beacon has a beta of 0.1. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American Beacon average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Beacon Mid-Cap will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. American Beacon Mid-Cap is significantly underperforming DOW.
   American Beacon Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for American Beacon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Beacon Mid-Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Beacon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Beacon in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.000.001.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.102.093.66
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Beacon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Beacon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Beacon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Beacon Mid-Cap.

American Beacon Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Beacon is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Beacon's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Beacon Mid-Cap, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Beacon within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.0026
β
Beta against DOW0.10
σ
Overall volatility
0.77
Ir
Information ratio 0.019579

American Beacon Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Beacon for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Beacon Mid-Cap can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Latest headline from www.gobankingrates.com: 5 Things You Didnt Know About Dollar Tree - GOBankingRates
American Beacon Mid-Cap generated five year return of -1.0%
This fund holds 96.75% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

American Beacon Technical Analysis

American Beacon's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Beacon Mid-Cap. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

American Beacon Predictive Forecast Models

American Beacon time-series forecasting models is one of many American Beacon's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary American Beacon's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about American Beacon Mid-Cap

Checking the ongoing alerts about American Beacon for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Beacon Mid-Cap help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Latest headline from www.gobankingrates.com: 5 Things You Didnt Know About Dollar Tree - GOBankingRates
American Beacon Mid-Cap generated five year return of -1.0%
This fund holds 96.75% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities
Please continue to American Beacon Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, American Beacon Correlation, American Beacon Hype Analysis, American Beacon Volatility, American Beacon History as well as American Beacon Performance. Note that the American Beacon Mid-Cap information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Beacon's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

Complementary Tools for American Mutual Fund analysis

When running American Beacon Mid-Cap price analysis, check to measure American Beacon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Beacon is operating at the current time. Most of American Beacon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Beacon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Beacon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Beacon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between American Beacon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Beacon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Beacon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.