Alcon Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 62.04

ALC
 Stock
  

USD 62.04  2.64  4.44%   

Alcon's future price is the expected price of Alcon instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Alcon Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Alcon's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Alcon Inc. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Alcon based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Alcon Inc over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $62.5 is a CALL option contract on Alcon's common stock with a strick price of 62.5 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-30 at 10:59:49 for $0.65 and, as of today, has 17 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.6, and an ask price of $0.7. The implied volatility as of the 4th of October is 33.5939. View All Alcon options

Closest to current price Alcon long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Alcon Backtesting, Alcon Valuation, Alcon Correlation, Alcon Hype Analysis, Alcon Volatility, Alcon History as well as Alcon Performance. Please specify Alcon time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcon odds to be computed.

Alcon Target Price Odds to finish over 62.04

The tendency of Alcon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 62.04 90 days 62.04 
about 91.34
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcon to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 91.34 (This Alcon Inc probability density function shows the probability of Alcon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Alcon has a beta of 0.84. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alcon average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alcon Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Alcon Inc is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Alcon Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Alcon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alcon Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alcon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alcon in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
57.8559.5661.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
53.4665.8867.59
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
72.0087.2198.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alcon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alcon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alcon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alcon Inc.

Alcon Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alcon is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alcon's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alcon Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alcon within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.18
β
Beta against DOW0.84
σ
Overall volatility
5.28
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Alcon Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alcon for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alcon Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Alcon Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Alcon Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 65.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.marketscreener.com: Alcon Completes Availability of Clareon Portfolio with Clareon Toric During AAO 2022 - Marketscreener.com

Alcon Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alcon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alcon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alcon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.00%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.11
Float Shares490.88M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.24M
Shares Short Prior Month6.18M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month810.42k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.20%

Alcon Technical Analysis

Alcon's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alcon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alcon Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alcon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Alcon Predictive Forecast Models

Alcon time-series forecasting models is one of many Alcon's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Alcon's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Alcon Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Alcon for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alcon Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Alcon Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Alcon Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 65.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.marketscreener.com: Alcon Completes Availability of Clareon Portfolio with Clareon Toric During AAO 2022 - Marketscreener.com
Please continue to Alcon Backtesting, Alcon Valuation, Alcon Correlation, Alcon Hype Analysis, Alcon Volatility, Alcon History as well as Alcon Performance. You can also try Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Alcon Inc price analysis, check to measure Alcon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcon is operating at the current time. Most of Alcon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Efficient Frontier
Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market.
Go
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Go
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Go
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
Pair Correlation
Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
Go
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Go
Portfolio File Import
Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format
Go
Focused Opportunities
Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences
Go
Is Alcon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alcon. If investors know Alcon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alcon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Alcon Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alcon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.