Aerojet Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 39.34

AJRD
 Stock
  

USD 40.14  1.28  3.29%   

Aerojet Rocketdyne's future price is the expected price of Aerojet Rocketdyne instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Aerojet Rocketdyne Price to Earnings Ratio are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Price to Earnings Ratio were at 25.98.
  
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Aerojet Rocketdyne's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Aerojet Rocketdyne based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-15 CALL at $40.0 is a CALL option contract on Aerojet Rocketdyne's common stock with a strick price of 40.0 expiring on 2022-07-15. The contract was last traded on 2022-06-24 at 15:19:40 for $1.1 and, as of today, has 19 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.9, and an ask price of $1.2. The implied volatility as of the 27th of June is 26.3392. View All Aerojet options

Closest to current price Aerojet long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Aerojet Rocketdyne Backtesting, Aerojet Rocketdyne Valuation, Aerojet Rocketdyne Correlation, Aerojet Rocketdyne Hype Analysis, Aerojet Rocketdyne Volatility, Aerojet Rocketdyne History as well as Aerojet Rocketdyne Performance. Please specify Aerojet Rocketdyne time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Aerojet Rocketdyne odds to be computed.
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Aerojet Rocketdyne Target Price Odds to finish below 39.34

The tendency of Aerojet Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 39.34  or more in 90 days
 40.14 90 days 39.34  about 22.97
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aerojet Rocketdyne to drop to $ 39.34  or more in 90 days from now is about 22.97 (This Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Aerojet Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aerojet Rocketdyne price to stay between $ 39.34  and its current price of $40.14 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.43 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Aerojet Rocketdyne has a beta of 0.59. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aerojet Rocketdyne average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0939, implying that it can generate a 0.0939 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Aerojet Rocketdyne Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Aerojet Rocketdyne

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aerojet Rocketdyne. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aerojet Rocketdyne's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Aerojet Rocketdyne in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
38.3540.1441.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
36.1347.1648.95
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
37.6439.4341.23
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
51.0051.0051.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aerojet Rocketdyne. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aerojet Rocketdyne's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aerojet Rocketdyne's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Aerojet Rocketdyne.

Aerojet Rocketdyne Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aerojet Rocketdyne is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aerojet Rocketdyne's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aerojet Rocketdyne within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.09
β
Beta against DOW0.59
σ
Overall volatility
1.34
Ir
Information ratio 0.09

Aerojet Rocketdyne Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aerojet Rocketdyne for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aerojet Rocketdyne can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings was previously known as AEROJET ROCKETDYNE HOLDINGS and was traded on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol GY.
Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.businesswire.com: Aerojet Rocketdyne Executive Chairman Warren Lichtenstein Supports Pre-Release of Company Results Ahead of Critical Vote at Special Meeting - Business Wire

Aerojet Rocketdyne Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aerojet Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aerojet Rocketdyne's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aerojet Rocketdyne's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date9th of March 2021
Shares Percent Shares Out5.44%
Short Percent Of Float7.51%
Float Shares70.45M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day814.9k
Shares Short Prior Month4.51M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month847.89k
Date Short Interest31st of May 2022

Aerojet Rocketdyne Technical Analysis

Aerojet Rocketdyne's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aerojet Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aerojet Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Aerojet Rocketdyne Predictive Forecast Models

Aerojet Rocketdyne time-series forecasting models is one of many Aerojet Rocketdyne's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Aerojet Rocketdyne's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Aerojet Rocketdyne

Checking the ongoing alerts about Aerojet Rocketdyne for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aerojet Rocketdyne help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Aerojet Rocketdyne Alerts

Aerojet Rocketdyne Alerts and Suggestions

Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings was previously known as AEROJET ROCKETDYNE HOLDINGS and was traded on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol GY.
Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.businesswire.com: Aerojet Rocketdyne Executive Chairman Warren Lichtenstein Supports Pre-Release of Company Results Ahead of Critical Vote at Special Meeting - Business Wire
Please continue to Aerojet Rocketdyne Backtesting, Aerojet Rocketdyne Valuation, Aerojet Rocketdyne Correlation, Aerojet Rocketdyne Hype Analysis, Aerojet Rocketdyne Volatility, Aerojet Rocketdyne History as well as Aerojet Rocketdyne Performance. Note that the Aerojet Rocketdyne information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aerojet Rocketdyne's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

Complementary Tools for Aerojet Stock analysis

When running Aerojet Rocketdyne price analysis, check to measure Aerojet Rocketdyne's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aerojet Rocketdyne is operating at the current time. Most of Aerojet Rocketdyne's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aerojet Rocketdyne's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aerojet Rocketdyne's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aerojet Rocketdyne to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aerojet Rocketdyne's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aerojet Rocketdyne. If investors know Aerojet will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aerojet Rocketdyne listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.51
Market Capitalization
3.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.03
Return On Assets
0.0679
Return On Equity
0.37
The market value of Aerojet Rocketdyne is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aerojet that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aerojet Rocketdyne's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aerojet Rocketdyne's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aerojet Rocketdyne's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aerojet Rocketdyne's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aerojet Rocketdyne's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Aerojet Rocketdyne value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aerojet Rocketdyne's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.