AAR Corp Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 40.52

AIR
 Stock
  

USD 47.56  0.49  1.04%   

AAR Corp's future price is the expected price of AAR Corp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of AAR Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. As of 12/05/2022, Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 22.49, while Price to Book Value is likely to drop 1.54.
  
AAR Corp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on AAR Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of AAR Corp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in AAR Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $45.0 is a CALL option contract on AAR Corp's common stock with a strick price of 45.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-18 at 10:31:42 for $1.88 and, as of today, has 11 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.5, and an ask price of $4.0. The implied volatility as of the 5th of December is 71.0437. View All AAR Corp options

Closest to current price AAR Corp long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to AAR Corp Backtesting, AAR Corp Valuation, AAR Corp Correlation, AAR Corp Hype Analysis, AAR Corp Volatility, AAR Corp History as well as AAR Corp Performance. Please specify AAR Corp time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like AAR Corp odds to be computed.

AAR Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 40.52

The tendency of AAR Corp Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 40.52  in 90 days
 47.56 90 days 40.52 
about 64.94
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AAR Corp to stay above $ 40.52  in 90 days from now is about 64.94 (This AAR Corp probability density function shows the probability of AAR Corp Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AAR Corp price to stay between $ 40.52  and its current price of $47.56 at the end of the 90-day period is about 60.12 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.18 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, AAR Corp will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0576, implying that it can generate a 0.0576 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   AAR Corp Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for AAR Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AAR Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of AAR Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of AAR Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
45.4947.7349.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
44.7446.9849.22
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
45.0049.5053.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.502.502.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AAR Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AAR Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AAR Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in AAR Corp.

AAR Corp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AAR Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AAR Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AAR Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AAR Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.06
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.18
σ
Overall volatility
3.44
Ir
Information ratio 0.033771

AAR Corp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AAR Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AAR Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
AAR Corp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Marc Walfish of 510 shares of AAR Corp subject to Rule 16b-3

AAR Corp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AAR Corp Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AAR Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AAR Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding36000000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments53500000.00

AAR Corp Technical Analysis

AAR Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AAR Corp Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AAR Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing AAR Corp Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

AAR Corp Predictive Forecast Models

AAR Corp time-series forecasting models is one of many AAR Corp's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary AAR Corp's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about AAR Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about AAR Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AAR Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
AAR Corp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Marc Walfish of 510 shares of AAR Corp subject to Rule 16b-3
Please continue to AAR Corp Backtesting, AAR Corp Valuation, AAR Corp Correlation, AAR Corp Hype Analysis, AAR Corp Volatility, AAR Corp History as well as AAR Corp Performance. You can also try Commodity Channel Index module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.

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When running AAR Corp price analysis, check to measure AAR Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AAR Corp is operating at the current time. Most of AAR Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AAR Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AAR Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AAR Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AAR Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AAR Corp. If investors know AAR Corp will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AAR Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.98
Market Capitalization
1.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.019) 
Return On Assets
0.051
Return On Equity
0.0885
The market value of AAR Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AAR Corp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AAR Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AAR Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AAR Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AAR Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AAR Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AAR Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AAR Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.