Archer Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 4.65

ACHR
 Stock
  

USD 4.65  0.04  0.87%   

Archer Aviation's future price is the expected price of Archer Aviation instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Archer Aviation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. As of 08/16/2022, Price to Book Value is likely to grow to 2.11, while Price to Earnings Ratio are likely to drop (2.08) .
  
Archer Aviation's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Archer Aviation. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Archer Aviation based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Archer Aviation over a specific time period. For example, 2022-08-19 CALL at $5.0 is a CALL option contract on Archer Aviation's common stock with a strick price of 5.0 expiring on 2022-08-19. The contract was last traded on 2022-08-15 at 15:45:44 for $0.05 and, as of today, has 3 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.05, and an ask price of $0.1. The implied volatility as of the 16th of August 2022 is 90.8032. View All Archer options

Closest to current price Archer long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Archer Aviation Backtesting, Archer Aviation Valuation, Archer Aviation Correlation, Archer Aviation Hype Analysis, Archer Aviation Volatility, Archer Aviation History as well as Archer Aviation Performance. Please specify Archer Aviation time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Archer Aviation odds to be computed.

Archer Aviation Target Price Odds to finish over 4.65

The tendency of Archer Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 4.65 90 days 4.65 
about 8.13
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Archer Aviation to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 8.13 (This Archer Aviation probability density function shows the probability of Archer Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.79 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Archer Aviation will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.5608, implying that it can generate a 0.56 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Archer Aviation Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Archer Aviation

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Archer Aviation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Archer Aviation's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Archer Aviation in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.044.939.82
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
2.187.0711.96
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
14.0014.5015.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.94-1.94-1.94
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Archer Aviation. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Archer Aviation's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Archer Aviation's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Archer Aviation.

Archer Aviation Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Archer Aviation is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Archer Aviation's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Archer Aviation, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Archer Aviation within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.56
β
Beta against DOW1.79
σ
Overall volatility
0.58
Ir
Information ratio 0.1

Archer Aviation Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Archer Aviation for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Archer Aviation can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Archer Aviation is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Archer Aviation appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Net Loss for the year was (312.1 M).
Archer Aviation currently holds about 704.2 M in cash with (133.2 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.93.
Archer Aviation has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from www.fool.com: Why Archer Aviations Stock Is Gaining Altitude Today - The Motley Fool

Archer Aviation Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Archer Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Archer Aviation's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Archer Aviation's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out5.77%
Short Percent Of Float10.40%
Float Shares131.91M
Shares Short Prior Month10M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.8M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.58M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Archer Aviation Technical Analysis

Archer Aviation's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Archer Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Archer Aviation. In general, you should focus on analyzing Archer Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Archer Aviation Predictive Forecast Models

Archer Aviation time-series forecasting models is one of many Archer Aviation's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Archer Aviation's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Archer Aviation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Archer Aviation for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Archer Aviation help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Archer Aviation Alerts

Archer Aviation Alerts and Suggestions

Archer Aviation is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Archer Aviation appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Net Loss for the year was (312.1 M).
Archer Aviation currently holds about 704.2 M in cash with (133.2 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.93.
Archer Aviation has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from www.fool.com: Why Archer Aviations Stock Is Gaining Altitude Today - The Motley Fool
Please continue to Archer Aviation Backtesting, Archer Aviation Valuation, Archer Aviation Correlation, Archer Aviation Hype Analysis, Archer Aviation Volatility, Archer Aviation History as well as Archer Aviation Performance. Note that the Archer Aviation information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Archer Aviation's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

Complementary Tools for Archer Stock analysis

When running Archer Aviation price analysis, check to measure Archer Aviation's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Archer Aviation is operating at the current time. Most of Archer Aviation's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Archer Aviation's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Archer Aviation's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Archer Aviation to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Archer Aviation's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Archer Aviation. If investors know Archer will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Archer Aviation listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
1.2 B
Return On Assets
-0.57
Return On Equity
-1.16
The market value of Archer Aviation is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Archer that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Archer Aviation's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Archer Aviation's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Archer Aviation's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Archer Aviation's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Archer Aviation's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Archer Aviation value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Archer Aviation's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.