American Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 8.64

AAAHX
 Fund
  

USD 9.19  0.03  0.33%   

American Century's future price is the expected price of American Century instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of American Century One performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Please continue to American Century Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, American Century Correlation, American Century Hype Analysis, American Century Volatility, American Century History as well as American Century Performance. Please specify American Century time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Century odds to be computed.

American Century Target Price Odds to finish below 8.64

The tendency of American Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 8.64  or more in 90 days
 9.19 90 days 8.64 
about 10.78
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Century to drop to $ 8.64  or more in 90 days from now is about 10.78 (This American Century One probability density function shows the probability of American Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Century One price to stay between $ 8.64  and its current price of $9.19 at the end of the 90-day period is about 78.85 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon American Century has a beta of 0.0168. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American Century average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Century One will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0087, implying that it can generate a 0.008731 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   American Century Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for American Century

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Century One. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Century's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Century in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.369.1910.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.219.049.87
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
8.369.1910.02
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
8.759.089.40
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Century. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Century's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Century's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Century One.

American Century Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Century is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Century's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Century One, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Century within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.008731
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.0168
σ
Overall volatility
0.22
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

American Century Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Century for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Century One can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund holds about 10.24% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities

American Century Technical Analysis

American Century's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Century One. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

American Century Predictive Forecast Models

American Century time-series forecasting models is one of many American Century's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary American Century's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about American Century One

Checking the ongoing alerts about American Century for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Century One help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund holds about 10.24% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities
Please continue to American Century Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, American Century Correlation, American Century Hype Analysis, American Century Volatility, American Century History as well as American Century Performance. Note that the American Century One information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Century's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for American Mutual Fund analysis

When running American Century One price analysis, check to measure American Century's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Century is operating at the current time. Most of American Century's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Century's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Century's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Century to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between American Century's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Century value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Century's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.