Xunlei Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

XNET
 Stock
  

USD 1.70  0.08  4.94%   

Xunlei Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Xunlei historical stock prices and determine the direction of Xunlei Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Xunlei historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xunlei to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Xunlei Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Xunlei's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Xunlei's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Xunlei stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Xunlei's open interest, investors have to compare it to Xunlei's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Xunlei is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Xunlei. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Xunlei cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Xunlei's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Xunlei's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Xunlei is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Xunlei Limited value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Xunlei Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Xunlei Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.012619, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.41.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Xunlei Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Xunlei's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Xunlei Stock Forecast Pattern

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Xunlei Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Xunlei's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Xunlei's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.017 and 7.16, respectively. We have considered Xunlei's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 1.70
1.77
Expected Value
7.16
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Xunlei stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Xunlei stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.738
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0886
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0672
SAESum of the absolute errors5.4058
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Xunlei Limited. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Xunlei. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Xunlei

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Xunlei Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Xunlei's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Xunlei in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.091.717.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.081.556.86
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
1.531.621.71
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Xunlei. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Xunlei's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Xunlei's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Xunlei Limited.

Other Forecasting Options for Xunlei

For every potential investor in Xunlei, whether a beginner or expert, Xunlei's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Xunlei Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Xunlei. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Xunlei's price trends.

Xunlei Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Xunlei stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Xunlei could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Xunlei by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Akamai TechnologiesBaidu Inc ADRBroadridge FinancialBaozun Inc ADRCDW CorpSalesforceF5 IncAlphabet Cl CHewlett Packard EnteIac IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Xunlei Limited Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Xunlei's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Xunlei's current price.

Xunlei Risk Indicators

The analysis of Xunlei's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Xunlei's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Xunlei stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Xunlei without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xunlei to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Xunlei Limited information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Xunlei's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

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When running Xunlei Limited price analysis, check to measure Xunlei's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Xunlei is operating at the current time. Most of Xunlei's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Xunlei's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Xunlei's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Xunlei to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Xunlei's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Xunlei. If investors know Xunlei will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Xunlei listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
378.82
Market Capitalization
113 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.47
Return On Assets
0.0139
Return On Equity
0.0642
The market value of Xunlei Limited is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Xunlei that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Xunlei's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Xunlei's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Xunlei's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Xunlei's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Xunlei's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Xunlei value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Xunlei's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.