General American Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

XGAMX
 Fund
  

USD 44.78  0.01  0.0223%   

General Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast General American historical stock prices and determine the direction of General American Investors's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of General American historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out fundamental analysis of General American to check your projections.
  
Most investors in General American cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the General American's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets General American's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for General American is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of General American Investors value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

General American Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of General American Investors on the next trading day is expected to be 45.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57, mean absolute percentage error of 0.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.79.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict General Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that General American's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

General American Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

General American Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting General American's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. General American's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.36 and 47.54, respectively. We have considered General American's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 44.78
45.95
Expected Value
47.54
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of General American mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent General American mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5495
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5703
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0133
SAESum of the absolute errors34.7885
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of General American Investors. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict General American. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for General American

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as General American Inv. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of General American's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of General American in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
43.1944.7846.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
39.2440.8349.26
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
40.4643.2346.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as General American. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against General American's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, General American's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in General American Inv.

Other Forecasting Options for General American

For every potential investor in General, whether a beginner or expert, General American's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. General Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in General. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying General American's price trends.

General American Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with General American mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of General American could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing General American by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Dupont De NemoursAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USAAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLCVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil CorpSignature Bank
 Risk & Return  Correlation

General American Inv Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of General American's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of General American's current price.

General American Risk Indicators

The analysis of General American's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in General American's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting General American stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards General American in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, General American's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from General American options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out fundamental analysis of General American to check your projections. You can also try Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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When running General American Inv price analysis, check to measure General American's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy General American is operating at the current time. Most of General American's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of General American's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move General American's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of General American to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between General American's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine General American value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, General American's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.