Travelers Companies Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

TRV
 Stock
  

USD 186.32  2.59  1.37%   

Travelers Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Travelers Companies historical stock prices and determine the direction of The Travelers Companies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Travelers Companies historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Travelers Companies naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of The Travelers Companies systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Travelers Companies fundamentals over time.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Travelers Companies to cross-verify your projections.
  
Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to climb to 72.49 in 2022, whereas Asset Turnover is likely to drop 0.27 in 2022. . Travelers Companies Weighted Average Shares is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Travelers Companies reported Weighted Average Shares of 248.5 Million in 2021. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to climb to about 321.6 M in 2022, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (2.7 B) in 2022.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Travelers Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Travelers Companies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Travelers Companies' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Travelers Companies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Travelers Companies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Travelers Companies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Travelers Companies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Travelers. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Travelers Companies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Travelers Companies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Travelers Companies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Travelers Companies simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for The Travelers Companies are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as The Travelers Companies prices get older.

Travelers Companies Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Travelers Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 186.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.71, mean absolute percentage error of 4.96, and the sum of the absolute errors of 894.22.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Travelers Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Travelers Companies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Travelers Companies Stock Forecast Pattern

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Travelers Companies Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Travelers Companies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Travelers Companies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 184.91 and 187.73, respectively. We have considered Travelers Companies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 186.32
184.91
Downside
186.32
Expected Value
187.73
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Travelers Companies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Travelers Companies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria966.9727
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.13
MADMean absolute deviation1.7131
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.011
SAESum of the absolute errors894.22
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting The Travelers Companies forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Travelers Companies observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Travelers Companies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as The Travelers Companies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Travelers Companies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Travelers Companies in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
184.85186.33187.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
167.69188.39189.87
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
180.37183.87187.37
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
152.00166.70185.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Travelers Companies. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Travelers Companies' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Travelers Companies' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in The Travelers Companies.

Other Forecasting Options for Travelers Companies

For every potential investor in Travelers, whether a beginner or expert, Travelers Companies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Travelers Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Travelers. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Travelers Companies' price trends.

Travelers Companies Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Travelers Companies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Travelers Companies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Travelers Companies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
American InternationalAssurantArch Capital GrpAon PlcErie IndemnityAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

The Travelers Companies Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Travelers Companies' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Travelers Companies' current price.

Travelers Companies Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Travelers Companies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Travelers Companies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Travelers Companies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The Travelers Companies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Travelers Companies Risk Indicators

The analysis of Travelers Companies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Travelers Companies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Travelers Companies stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Travelers Companies without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Travelers Companies to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running The Travelers Companies price analysis, check to measure Travelers Companies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Travelers Companies is operating at the current time. Most of Travelers Companies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Travelers Companies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Travelers Companies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Travelers Companies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Travelers Companies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Travelers Companies. If investors know Travelers will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Travelers Companies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.28) 
Market Capitalization
44.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.057
Return On Assets
0.0232
Return On Equity
0.14
The market value of The Travelers Companies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Travelers that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Travelers Companies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Travelers Companies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Travelers Companies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Travelers Companies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Travelers Companies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Travelers Companies value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Travelers Companies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.