Renren Inc Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

RENN
 Stock
  

USD 32.81  0.06  0.18%   

Renren Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Renren Inc historical stock prices and determine the direction of Renren Inc ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Renren Inc historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Renren Inc to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Renren Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Renren Inc's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Renren Inc's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Renren Inc stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Renren Inc's open interest, investors have to compare it to Renren Inc's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Renren Inc is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Renren. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Renren Inc cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Renren Inc's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Renren Inc's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Renren Inc is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Renren Inc ADR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Renren Inc Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Renren Inc ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 32.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.04.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Renren Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Renren Inc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Renren Inc Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Renren IncRenren Inc Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Renren Inc Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Renren Inc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Renren Inc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.40 and 33.00, respectively. We have considered Renren Inc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 32.81
32.20
Expected Value
33.00
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Renren Inc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Renren Inc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.1201
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.181
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0059
SAESum of the absolute errors11.0391
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Renren Inc ADR. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Renren Inc. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Renren Inc

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Renren Inc ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Renren Inc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Renren Inc in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
32.0532.8633.67
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
22.4823.2936.09
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
32.7032.8733.03
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
9.009.009.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Renren Inc. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Renren Inc's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Renren Inc's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Renren Inc ADR.

Other Forecasting Options for Renren Inc

For every potential investor in Renren, whether a beginner or expert, Renren Inc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Renren Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Renren. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Renren Inc's price trends.

Renren Inc Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Renren Inc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Renren Inc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Renren Inc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Charter CommunicatioEquinixNetease Inc ADREchostar CorpVnet GroupVerisignEmerson ElectricBlockbusterNetflixAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp Billiton
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Renren Inc ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Renren Inc's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Renren Inc's current price.

Renren Inc Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Renren Inc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Renren Inc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Renren Inc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Renren Inc ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Renren Inc Risk Indicators

The analysis of Renren Inc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Renren Inc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Renren Inc stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Renren Inc in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Renren Inc's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Renren Inc options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Renren Inc to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Renren Inc ADR price analysis, check to measure Renren Inc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Renren Inc is operating at the current time. Most of Renren Inc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Renren Inc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Renren Inc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Renren Inc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm
Go
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Go
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Go
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Is Renren Inc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Renren Inc. If investors know Renren will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Renren Inc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.63) 
Market Capitalization
820.6 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.42
Return On Assets
(0.07) 
Return On Equity
(0.37) 
The market value of Renren Inc ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Renren that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Renren Inc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Renren Inc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Renren Inc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Renren Inc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Renren Inc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Renren Inc value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Renren Inc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.