Macerich Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MAC
 Stock
  

USD 12.62  0.23  1.86%   

Macerich Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Macerich historical stock prices and determine the direction of Macerich Company's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Macerich historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Macerich naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Macerich Company systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Macerich fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Macerich to cross-verify your projections.
  
Macerich PPandE Turnover is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's PPandE Turnover was at 0.13. The current year Receivables Turnover is expected to grow to 3.86, whereas Accounts Payable Turnover is forecasted to decline to 12.73. . The current year Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is expected to grow to about 897.2 M, whereas Weighted Average Shares is forecasted to decline to about 165.4 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Macerich Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Macerich's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Macerich's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Macerich stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Macerich's open interest, investors have to compare it to Macerich's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Macerich is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Macerich. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Macerich cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Macerich's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Macerich's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Macerich is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Macerich Company value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Macerich Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Macerich Company on the next trading day is expected to be 11.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Macerich Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Macerich's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Macerich Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest MacerichMacerich Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Macerich Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Macerich's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Macerich's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.69 and 15.20, respectively. We have considered Macerich's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 12.62
11.94
Expected Value
15.20
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Macerich stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Macerich stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.5343
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2205
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0221
SAESum of the absolute errors13.4527
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Macerich Company. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Macerich. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Macerich

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Macerich. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Macerich's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Macerich in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
9.4012.6615.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
11.4314.6917.95
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
14.7519.8027.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (8)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.951.972.01
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Macerich. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Macerich's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Macerich's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Macerich.

Other Forecasting Options for Macerich

For every potential investor in Macerich, whether a beginner or expert, Macerich's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Macerich Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Macerich. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Macerich's price trends.

Macerich Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Macerich stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Macerich could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Macerich by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
COMSovereign Holding CorpWalt DisneyATT IncMicrosoftJPMorgan ChaseExxon Mobil Corp3M CompanyInternational BusinessAlcoa CorpAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group Limited
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Macerich Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Macerich's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Macerich's current price.

Macerich Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Macerich stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Macerich shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Macerich stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Macerich Company entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Macerich Risk Indicators

The analysis of Macerich's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Macerich's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Macerich stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Macerich Investors Sentiment

The influence of Macerich's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Macerich. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Macerich's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Macerich. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Macerich can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Macerich Company. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Macerich's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Macerich's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Macerich's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Macerich.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Macerich in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Macerich's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Macerich options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Macerich using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

Fix your portfolio
By capturing your risk tolerance and investment horizon Macroaxis technology of instant portfolio optimization will compute exactly how much risk is acceptable for your desired return expectations
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Macerich to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Macerich information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Macerich's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..

Complementary Tools for Macerich Stock analysis

When running Macerich price analysis, check to measure Macerich's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Macerich is operating at the current time. Most of Macerich's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Macerich's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Macerich's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Macerich to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Money Managers
Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world
Go
ETF Directory
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world
Go
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Go
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
Go
Equity Valuation
Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data
Go
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Go
Portfolio Comparator
Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account
Go
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Go
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Go
Pair Correlation
Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
Go
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm
Go
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Go
Is Macerich's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Macerich. If investors know Macerich will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Macerich listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
2.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.031
Return On Assets
0.0092
Return On Equity
(0.0301) 
The market value of Macerich is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Macerich that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Macerich's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Macerich's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Macerich's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Macerich's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Macerich's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Macerich value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Macerich's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.