Kaspien Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

KSPN
 Stock
  

USD 0.82  0.01  1.20%   

Kaspien Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Kaspien Holdings historical stock prices and determine the direction of Kaspien Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Kaspien Holdings historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kaspien Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Kaspien Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Kaspien Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Kaspien Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Kaspien Holdings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Kaspien Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Kaspien Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kaspien Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 0.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.014022, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.15.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kaspien Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kaspien Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Kaspien Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

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Kaspien Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Kaspien Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kaspien Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0082 and 8.15, respectively. We have considered Kaspien Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 0.82
0.0082
Downside
0.70
Expected Value
8.15
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kaspien Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kaspien Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.8434
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0681
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0465
SAESum of the absolute errors4.1548
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Kaspien Holdings. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Kaspien Holdings. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Kaspien Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kaspien Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kaspien Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Kaspien Holdings in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.040.828.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.7410.6118.06
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
40.0040.0040.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.38-1.38-1.38
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kaspien Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kaspien Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kaspien Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Kaspien Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for Kaspien Holdings

For every potential investor in Kaspien, whether a beginner or expert, Kaspien Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kaspien Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kaspien. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kaspien Holdings' price trends.

Kaspien Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kaspien Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kaspien Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kaspien Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Absolute SoftwareADEIA CORPAutodeskAudioEyeAgilysysAlarm HoldingsAmerican SoftwareANSYS IncAppfolioDigital TurbineAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEAN
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Kaspien Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kaspien Holdings' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kaspien Holdings' current price.

Kaspien Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kaspien Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kaspien Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kaspien Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kaspien Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Kaspien Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of Kaspien Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kaspien Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Kaspien Holdings stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Kaspien Holdings without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kaspien Holdings to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

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Is Kaspien Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kaspien Holdings. If investors know Kaspien will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Kaspien Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.028) 
Return On Assets
(0.20) 
Return On Equity
(1.56) 
The market value of Kaspien Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kaspien that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kaspien Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kaspien Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kaspien Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kaspien Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kaspien Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Kaspien Holdings value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kaspien Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.