Jefferies Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

JEF
 Stock
  

USD 37.42  0.08  0.21%   

Jefferies Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Jefferies Financial historical stock prices and determine the direction of Jefferies Financial Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Jefferies Financial historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Jefferies Financial naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Jefferies Financial Group systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Jefferies Financial fundamentals over time.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jefferies Financial to cross-verify your projections.
  
Jefferies Financial Accounts Payable Turnover is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Accounts Payable Turnover was at 12.36. The current year Accrued Expenses Turnover is expected to grow to 58.91, whereas PPandE Turnover is forecasted to decline to 12.62. . As of November 29, 2022, Weighted Average Shares is expected to decline to about 325.8 M. In addition to that, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to decline to about 328.7 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Jefferies Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Jefferies Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Jefferies Financial's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Jefferies Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Jefferies Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Jefferies Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Jefferies Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Jefferies. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Jefferies Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Jefferies Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Jefferies Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Jefferies Financial is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Jefferies Financial Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Jefferies Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Jefferies Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 38.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76, mean absolute percentage error of 0.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.59.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jefferies Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jefferies Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Jefferies Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

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Jefferies Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Jefferies Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jefferies Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.18 and 40.65, respectively. We have considered Jefferies Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 37.42
38.42
Expected Value
40.65
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jefferies Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jefferies Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.0259
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7638
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0235
SAESum of the absolute errors46.591
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Jefferies Financial Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Jefferies Financial. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Jefferies Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jefferies Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jefferies Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Jefferies Financial in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
35.1437.3739.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
33.7145.5547.78
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
33.4636.1038.73
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
40.0047.6757.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Jefferies Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Jefferies Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Jefferies Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Jefferies Financial.

Other Forecasting Options for Jefferies Financial

For every potential investor in Jefferies, whether a beginner or expert, Jefferies Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jefferies Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jefferies. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jefferies Financial's price trends.

Jefferies Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jefferies Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jefferies Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jefferies Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Morgan StanleyCharles SchwabGoldman Sachs GroupChina Galaxy SecuritiesCitic SecuritiesInteractive BrokersRaymond James FinancialAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value Factor
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Jefferies Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Jefferies Financial's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Jefferies Financial's current price.

Jefferies Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jefferies Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jefferies Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jefferies Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Jefferies Financial Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Jefferies Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Jefferies Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jefferies Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Jefferies Financial stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Jefferies Financial without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jefferies Financial to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Jefferies Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Jefferies Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.

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When running Jefferies Financial price analysis, check to measure Jefferies Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Jefferies Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Jefferies Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Jefferies Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Jefferies Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Jefferies Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Jefferies Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Jefferies Financial. If investors know Jefferies will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Jefferies Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.48) 
Market Capitalization
8.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.21) 
Return On Assets
0.0172
Return On Equity
0.0924
The market value of Jefferies Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Jefferies that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Jefferies Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Jefferies Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Jefferies Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Jefferies Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Jefferies Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Jefferies Financial value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Jefferies Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.