HENDERSON DIVIDEND Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Moving Average

HDCVX
 Fund
  

USD 13.19  0.02  0.15%   

HENDERSON Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast HENDERSON DIVIDEND historical stock prices and determine the direction of HENDERSON DIVIDEND INCOME's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of HENDERSON DIVIDEND historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of HENDERSON DIVIDEND to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in HENDERSON DIVIDEND cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the HENDERSON DIVIDEND's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets HENDERSON DIVIDEND's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for HENDERSON DIVIDEND is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

HENDERSON DIVIDEND Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 7th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of HENDERSON DIVIDEND INCOME on the next trading day is expected to be 13.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.037159, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.09.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HENDERSON Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HENDERSON DIVIDEND's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

HENDERSON DIVIDEND Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest HENDERSON DIVIDENDHENDERSON DIVIDEND Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

HENDERSON DIVIDEND Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting HENDERSON DIVIDEND's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HENDERSON DIVIDEND's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.76 and 14.62, respectively. We have considered HENDERSON DIVIDEND's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 13.19
13.19
Expected Value
14.62
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HENDERSON DIVIDEND mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HENDERSON DIVIDEND mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.1422
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0268
MADMean absolute deviation0.1541
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0131
SAESum of the absolute errors9.09
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of HENDERSON DIVIDEND INCOME price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of HENDERSON DIVIDEND. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting stock prices into the future

Predictive Modules for HENDERSON DIVIDEND

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HENDERSON DIVIDEND INCOME. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of HENDERSON DIVIDEND's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of HENDERSON DIVIDEND in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11.7613.1914.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
11.1612.5914.02
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
11.4412.4913.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as HENDERSON DIVIDEND. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against HENDERSON DIVIDEND's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, HENDERSON DIVIDEND's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in HENDERSON DIVIDEND INCOME.

Other Forecasting Options for HENDERSON DIVIDEND

For every potential investor in HENDERSON, whether a beginner or expert, HENDERSON DIVIDEND's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HENDERSON Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HENDERSON. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HENDERSON DIVIDEND's price trends.

HENDERSON DIVIDEND Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HENDERSON DIVIDEND mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HENDERSON DIVIDEND could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HENDERSON DIVIDEND by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Procter GambleBarloworld ADROrea Mining CorpFT Cboe VestAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-Term
 Risk & Return  Correlation

HENDERSON DIVIDEND INCOME Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of HENDERSON DIVIDEND's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of HENDERSON DIVIDEND's current price.

HENDERSON DIVIDEND Risk Indicators

The analysis of HENDERSON DIVIDEND's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HENDERSON DIVIDEND's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting HENDERSON DIVIDEND stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards HENDERSON DIVIDEND in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, HENDERSON DIVIDEND's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from HENDERSON DIVIDEND options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as HENDERSON DIVIDEND INCOME using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of HENDERSON DIVIDEND to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running HENDERSON DIVIDEND INCOME price analysis, check to measure HENDERSON DIVIDEND's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy HENDERSON DIVIDEND is operating at the current time. Most of HENDERSON DIVIDEND's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of HENDERSON DIVIDEND's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move HENDERSON DIVIDEND's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of HENDERSON DIVIDEND to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between HENDERSON DIVIDEND's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine HENDERSON DIVIDEND value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HENDERSON DIVIDEND's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.