HENDERSON DIVIDEND Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

HDCVX
 Fund
  

USD 13.19  0.02  0.15%   

HENDERSON Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast HENDERSON DIVIDEND historical stock prices and determine the direction of HENDERSON DIVIDEND INCOME's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of HENDERSON DIVIDEND historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of HENDERSON DIVIDEND to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in HENDERSON DIVIDEND cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the HENDERSON DIVIDEND's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets HENDERSON DIVIDEND's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
HENDERSON DIVIDEND simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for HENDERSON DIVIDEND INCOME are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as HENDERSON DIVIDEND INCOME prices get older.

HENDERSON DIVIDEND Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HENDERSON DIVIDEND INCOME on the next trading day is expected to be 13.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.028127, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.66.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HENDERSON Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HENDERSON DIVIDEND's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

HENDERSON DIVIDEND Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest HENDERSON DIVIDENDHENDERSON DIVIDEND Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

HENDERSON DIVIDEND Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting HENDERSON DIVIDEND's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HENDERSON DIVIDEND's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.77 and 14.61, respectively. We have considered HENDERSON DIVIDEND's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 13.19
13.19
Expected Value
14.61
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HENDERSON DIVIDEND mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HENDERSON DIVIDEND mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.7016
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0193
MADMean absolute deviation0.1277
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0109
SAESum of the absolute errors7.66
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting HENDERSON DIVIDEND INCOME forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent HENDERSON DIVIDEND observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for HENDERSON DIVIDEND

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HENDERSON DIVIDEND INCOME. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of HENDERSON DIVIDEND's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of HENDERSON DIVIDEND in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11.7713.1914.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
12.1813.6015.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as HENDERSON DIVIDEND. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against HENDERSON DIVIDEND's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, HENDERSON DIVIDEND's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in HENDERSON DIVIDEND INCOME.

Other Forecasting Options for HENDERSON DIVIDEND

For every potential investor in HENDERSON, whether a beginner or expert, HENDERSON DIVIDEND's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HENDERSON Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HENDERSON. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HENDERSON DIVIDEND's price trends.

HENDERSON DIVIDEND Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HENDERSON DIVIDEND mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HENDERSON DIVIDEND could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HENDERSON DIVIDEND by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Coca-ColaMitsubishi UFJ FinancialTSLIndocan ResourcesEverscaleSPDR SP HomebuildersEverestScheid VineyardsGalxeGold FieldsAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEAN
 Risk & Return  Correlation

HENDERSON DIVIDEND INCOME Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of HENDERSON DIVIDEND's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of HENDERSON DIVIDEND's current price.

HENDERSON DIVIDEND Risk Indicators

The analysis of HENDERSON DIVIDEND's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HENDERSON DIVIDEND's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting HENDERSON DIVIDEND stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in HENDERSON DIVIDEND without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of HENDERSON DIVIDEND to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between HENDERSON DIVIDEND's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine HENDERSON DIVIDEND value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HENDERSON DIVIDEND's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.