Hyatt Hotels Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

H
 Stock
  

USD 96.20  1.86  1.90%   

Hyatt Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hyatt Hotels historical stock prices and determine the direction of Hyatt Hotels Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Hyatt Hotels historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Hyatt Hotels naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Hyatt Hotels Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hyatt Hotels fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hyatt Hotels to cross-verify your projections.
  
Hyatt Hotels Accounts Payable Turnover is most likely to decrease significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Accounts Payable Turnover was reported at 9.69. The current Accrued Expenses Turnover is estimated to increase to 27.80, while PPandE Turnover is projected to decrease to 0.97. . The current Weighted Average Shares is estimated to increase to about 134 M. The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to increase to about 134.5 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Hyatt Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Hyatt Hotels' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Hyatt Hotels' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Hyatt Hotels stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Hyatt Hotels' open interest, investors have to compare it to Hyatt Hotels' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Hyatt Hotels is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Hyatt. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Hyatt Hotels cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hyatt Hotels' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hyatt Hotels' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Hyatt Hotels is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Hyatt Hotels Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Hyatt Hotels Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hyatt Hotels Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 100.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.73, mean absolute percentage error of 4.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hyatt Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hyatt Hotels' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hyatt Hotels Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Hyatt HotelsHyatt Hotels Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Hyatt Hotels Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hyatt Hotels' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hyatt Hotels' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 98.56 and 103.15, respectively. We have considered Hyatt Hotels' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 96.20
100.86
Expected Value
103.15
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hyatt Hotels stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hyatt Hotels stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.5135
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.733
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0197
SAESum of the absolute errors107.4463
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Hyatt Hotels Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Hyatt Hotels. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Hyatt Hotels

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hyatt Hotels Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hyatt Hotels' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Hyatt Hotels in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
95.5897.87100.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
80.4182.70107.87
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
87.3392.2497.16
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
55.0087.25110.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hyatt Hotels. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hyatt Hotels' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hyatt Hotels' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Hyatt Hotels Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Hyatt Hotels

For every potential investor in Hyatt, whether a beginner or expert, Hyatt Hotels' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hyatt Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hyatt. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hyatt Hotels' price trends.

Hyatt Hotels Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hyatt Hotels stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hyatt Hotels could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hyatt Hotels by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Carnival CorpGigamediaHost Marriott FinancialMGM Resorts InternationalMakemytripNorwegian Cruise OrdAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian Gold
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hyatt Hotels Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hyatt Hotels' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hyatt Hotels' current price.

Hyatt Hotels Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hyatt Hotels' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hyatt Hotels' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Hyatt Hotels stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Hyatt Hotels without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hyatt Hotels to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Hyatt Hotels Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Hyatt Hotels' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

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When running Hyatt Hotels Corp price analysis, check to measure Hyatt Hotels' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hyatt Hotels is operating at the current time. Most of Hyatt Hotels' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hyatt Hotels' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hyatt Hotels' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hyatt Hotels to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hyatt Hotels' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hyatt Hotels. If investors know Hyatt will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hyatt Hotels listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.78) 
Market Capitalization
10.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
1.12
Return On Assets
0.0178
Return On Equity
0.0375
The market value of Hyatt Hotels Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hyatt that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hyatt Hotels' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hyatt Hotels' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hyatt Hotels' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hyatt Hotels' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hyatt Hotels' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Hyatt Hotels value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hyatt Hotels' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.