Cisco Systems Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

CSCO
 Stock
  

USD 49.13  0.02  0.0407%   

Cisco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Cisco Systems historical stock prices and determine the direction of Cisco Systems's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Cisco Systems historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Cisco Systems naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Cisco Systems systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Cisco Systems fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cisco Systems to cross-verify your projections.
  
Cisco Systems Receivables Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Receivables Turnover is estimated at 5.13. Inventory Turnover is expected to rise to 11.57 this year, although the value of PPandE Turnover will most likely fall to 23.32. . Cisco Systems Weighted Average Shares is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 4.42 Billion. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to rise to about 4.4 B this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is projected to rise to (5.6 B).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-09 Cisco Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Cisco Systems' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Cisco Systems' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Cisco Systems stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Cisco Systems' open interest, investors have to compare it to Cisco Systems' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Cisco Systems is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Cisco. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Cisco Systems cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Cisco Systems' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Cisco Systems' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Cisco Systems - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Cisco Systems prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Cisco Systems price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Cisco Systems.

Cisco Systems Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cisco Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 49.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 286.86.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cisco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cisco Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cisco Systems Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Cisco SystemsCisco Systems Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Cisco Systems Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cisco Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cisco Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.71 and 50.84, respectively. We have considered Cisco Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 49.13
49.27
Expected Value
50.84
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cisco Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cisco Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0333
MADMean absolute deviation0.5592
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0115
SAESum of the absolute errors286.8615
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Cisco Systems observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Cisco Systems observations.

Predictive Modules for Cisco Systems

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cisco Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cisco Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Cisco Systems in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
46.4248.2049.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
43.3656.3458.12
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
42.7346.8851.03
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
46.0061.6270.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cisco Systems. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cisco Systems' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cisco Systems' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Cisco Systems.

Other Forecasting Options for Cisco Systems

For every potential investor in Cisco, whether a beginner or expert, Cisco Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cisco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cisco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cisco Systems' price trends.

Cisco Systems Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cisco Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cisco Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cisco Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
IntelCoca-ColaChevron CorpJPMorgan ChaseWalt DisneyJohnson JohnsonDupont De NemoursHome DepotThe Travelers CompaniesAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group Limited
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cisco Systems Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cisco Systems' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cisco Systems' current price.

Cisco Systems Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cisco Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cisco Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cisco Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cisco Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cisco Systems Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cisco Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cisco Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Cisco Systems stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Cisco Systems without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Cisco Systems

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cisco Systems position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cisco Systems will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Cisco Systems

+0.8CIENCiena Corp Earnings Call TodayPairCorr
+0.92NTAPNetApp Inc Sell-off TrendPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cisco Systems could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cisco Systems when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cisco Systems - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cisco Systems to buy it.
The correlation of Cisco Systems is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cisco Systems moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cisco Systems moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cisco Systems can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cisco Systems to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Cisco Systems information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Cisco Systems' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.

Complementary Tools for Cisco Stock analysis

When running Cisco Systems price analysis, check to measure Cisco Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cisco Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Cisco Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cisco Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cisco Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cisco Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Cisco Systems' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cisco Systems. If investors know Cisco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cisco Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.07) 
Market Capitalization
197.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.057
Return On Assets
0.0933
Return On Equity
0.2773
The market value of Cisco Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cisco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cisco Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cisco Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cisco Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cisco Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cisco Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Cisco Systems value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cisco Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.