# Cemtrex Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CETX | Stock | ## USD 0.20 0.01 4.76% |

Cemtrex Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Cemtrex historical stock prices and determine the direction of Cemtrex's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Cemtrex historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.

Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cemtrex to cross-verify your projections. Cemtrex |

Most investors in Cemtrex cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Cemtrex's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Cemtrex's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.

A naive forecasting model for Cemtrex is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Cemtrex value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. ## Cemtrex Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cemtrex on the next trading day is expected to be 0.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.009252, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00016104, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cemtrex Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cemtrex's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

## Cemtrex Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Cemtrex | Cemtrex Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |

## Cemtrex Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cemtrex's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cemtrex's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.002 and 6.26, respectively. We have considered Cemtrex's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.

## Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cemtrex stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cemtrex stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.3766 |

Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |

MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0093 |

MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0439 |

SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.5644 |

## Predictive Modules for Cemtrex

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cemtrex. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cemtrex's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Cemtrex in the context of predictive analytics.

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cemtrex. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cemtrex's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cemtrex's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Cemtrex.

## Other Forecasting Options for Cemtrex

For every potential investor in Cemtrex, whether a beginner or expert, Cemtrex's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cemtrex Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cemtrex. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cemtrex's price trends.## Cemtrex Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cemtrex stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cemtrex could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cemtrex by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Risk & Return | Correlation |

## Cemtrex Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cemtrex's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cemtrex's current price.Cycle Indicators | ||

Math Operators | ||

Math Transform | ||

Momentum Indicators | ||

Overlap Studies | ||

Pattern Recognition | ||

Price Transform | ||

Statistic Functions | ||

Volatility Indicators | ||

Volume Indicators |

## Cemtrex Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cemtrex stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cemtrex shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cemtrex stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cemtrex entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Accumulation Distribution | 4890.91 | |||

Daily Balance Of Power | (0.50) | |||

Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||

Day Median Price | 0.21 | |||

Day Typical Price | 0.21 | |||

Price Action Indicator | (0.015) |

## Cemtrex Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cemtrex's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cemtrex's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Cemtrex stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

Mean Deviation | 4.67 | |||

Standard Deviation | 6.02 | |||

Variance | 36.28 |

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Cemtrex in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Cemtrex's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Cemtrex options trading.

## Pair Trading with Cemtrex

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cemtrex position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cemtrex will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.### Moving together with Cemtrex

+ | 0.71 | ADBE | Adobe Systems | Fiscal Year End 15th of December 2022 | PairCorr | ||

+ | 0.81 | SNPS | Synopsys | Fiscal Year End 7th of December 2022 | PairCorr | ||

+ | 0.69 | CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings | Earnings Call Today | PairCorr |

### Moving against Cemtrex

- | 0.76 | AZPN | Aspen Technology | Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cemtrex could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cemtrex when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cemtrex - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cemtrex to buy it.

The correlation of Cemtrex is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cemtrex moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cemtrex moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cemtrex can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cemtrex to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

## Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Cemtrex price analysis, check to measure Cemtrex's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cemtrex is operating at the current time. Most of Cemtrex's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cemtrex's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cemtrex's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cemtrex to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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Is Cemtrex's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cemtrex. If investors know Cemtrex will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cemtrex listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Market Capitalization 5.4 M | Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY 0.32 | Return On Assets (0.14) | Return On Equity (0.47) |

The market value of Cemtrex is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cemtrex that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cemtrex's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cemtrex's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cemtrex's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cemtrex's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Cemtrex's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Cemtrex value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cemtrex's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.