Crown Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CCK
 Stock
  

USD 84.09  1.36  1.64%   

Crown Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Crown Holdings historical stock prices and determine the direction of Crown Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Crown Holdings historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Crown Holdings naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Crown Holdings systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Crown Holdings fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Crown Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
  
The current PPandE Turnover is estimated to increase to 3.58. The current Receivables Turnover is estimated to increase to 8.12. Crown Holdings Weighted Average Shares is decreasing as compared to previous years. The last year's value of Weighted Average Shares was reported at 130.38 Million. The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to increase to about 150.3 M, while Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is projected to decrease to (972.9 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Crown Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Crown Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Crown Holdings' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Crown Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Crown Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Crown Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Crown Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Crown. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Crown Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Crown Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Crown Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Crown Holdings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Crown Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Crown Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Crown Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 80.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.83, mean absolute percentage error of 12.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 172.78.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Crown Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Crown Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Crown Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

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Crown Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Crown Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Crown Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 77.41 and 84.17, respectively. We have considered Crown Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 84.09
80.79
Expected Value
84.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Crown Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Crown Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.6508
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.8324
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0356
SAESum of the absolute errors172.779
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Crown Holdings. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Crown Holdings. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Crown Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Crown Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Crown Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Crown Holdings in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
80.6183.9987.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
75.68104.30107.68
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
56.00124.93152.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (8)
LowProjected EPSHigh
7.507.547.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Crown Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Crown Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Crown Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Crown Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for Crown Holdings

For every potential investor in Crown, whether a beginner or expert, Crown Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Crown Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Crown. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Crown Holdings' price trends.

Crown Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Crown Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Crown Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Crown Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Fuwei Films HoldingsGraphic Packaging HoldingPackaging CorpReynolds ConsumerTriMasWestRockAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian Gold
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Crown Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Crown Holdings' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Crown Holdings' current price.

Crown Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of Crown Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Crown Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Crown Holdings stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Crown Holdings without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Crown Holdings

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Crown Holdings position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Crown Holdings will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Crown Holdings could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Crown Holdings when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Crown Holdings - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Crown Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Crown Holdings is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Crown Holdings moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Crown Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Crown Holdings can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Crown Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Crown Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Crown Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

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When running Crown Holdings price analysis, check to measure Crown Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Crown Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Crown Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Crown Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Crown Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Crown Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Crown Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Crown Holdings. If investors know Crown will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Crown Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.35
Market Capitalization
10.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.12
Return On Assets
(0.007) 
Return On Equity
(0.09) 
The market value of Crown Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Crown that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Crown Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Crown Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Crown Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Crown Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Crown Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Crown Holdings value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Crown Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.