BROWN ADVISORY Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

BADAX
 Fund
  

USD 14.80  0.02  0.13%   

BROWN Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast BROWN ADVISORY historical stock prices and determine the direction of BROWN ADVISORY EQUITY's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of BROWN ADVISORY historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of BROWN ADVISORY to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in BROWN ADVISORY cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the BROWN ADVISORY's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets BROWN ADVISORY's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for BROWN ADVISORY works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

BROWN ADVISORY Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BROWN ADVISORY EQUITY on the next trading day is expected to be 14.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.048289, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BROWN Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BROWN ADVISORY's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

BROWN ADVISORY Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest BROWN ADVISORYBROWN ADVISORY Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

BROWN ADVISORY Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BROWN ADVISORY's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BROWN ADVISORY's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.36 and 16.34, respectively. We have considered BROWN ADVISORY's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 14.80
14.85
Expected Value
16.34
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BROWN ADVISORY mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BROWN ADVISORY mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0198
MADMean absolute deviation0.1644
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0121
SAESum of the absolute errors9.7005
When BROWN ADVISORY EQUITY prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any BROWN ADVISORY EQUITY trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent BROWN ADVISORY observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for BROWN ADVISORY

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BROWN ADVISORY EQUITY. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of BROWN ADVISORY's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of BROWN ADVISORY in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.000.001.49
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.000.001.49
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
13.5714.2915.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as BROWN ADVISORY. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against BROWN ADVISORY's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, BROWN ADVISORY's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in BROWN ADVISORY EQUITY.

Other Forecasting Options for BROWN ADVISORY

For every potential investor in BROWN, whether a beginner or expert, BROWN ADVISORY's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BROWN Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BROWN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BROWN ADVISORY's price trends.

BROWN ADVISORY Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BROWN ADVISORY mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BROWN ADVISORY could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BROWN ADVISORY by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Nordea Bank AbpAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLCVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

BROWN ADVISORY EQUITY Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BROWN ADVISORY's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BROWN ADVISORY's current price.

BROWN ADVISORY Risk Indicators

The analysis of BROWN ADVISORY's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BROWN ADVISORY's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting BROWN ADVISORY stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards BROWN ADVISORY in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, BROWN ADVISORY's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from BROWN ADVISORY options trading.

Pair Trading with BROWN ADVISORY

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if BROWN ADVISORY position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in BROWN ADVISORY will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with BROWN ADVISORY

+0.95VFINXVANGUARD 500 INDEX Low VolatilityPairCorr
+0.96VFFSXVANGUARD 500 INDEX Low VolatilityPairCorr
+0.96VFIAXVANGUARD 500 INDEX Low VolatilityPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to BROWN ADVISORY could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace BROWN ADVISORY when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back BROWN ADVISORY - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling BROWN ADVISORY EQUITY to buy it.
The correlation of BROWN ADVISORY is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as BROWN ADVISORY moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if BROWN ADVISORY EQUITY moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for BROWN ADVISORY can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of BROWN ADVISORY to cross-verify your projections. Note that the BROWN ADVISORY EQUITY information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other BROWN ADVISORY's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

Complementary Tools for BROWN Mutual Fund analysis

When running BROWN ADVISORY EQUITY price analysis, check to measure BROWN ADVISORY's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BROWN ADVISORY is operating at the current time. Most of BROWN ADVISORY's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BROWN ADVISORY's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BROWN ADVISORY's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BROWN ADVISORY to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between BROWN ADVISORY's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine BROWN ADVISORY value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BROWN ADVISORY's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.