Atmos Energy Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

ATO
 Stock
  

USD 117.50  0.09  0.08%   

Atmos Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Atmos Energy historical stock prices and determine the direction of Atmos Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Atmos Energy historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Atmos Energy naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Atmos Energy systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Atmos Energy fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Atmos Energy to cross-verify your projections.
  
PPandE Turnover is expected to rise to 0.27 this year. Receivables Turnover is expected to rise to 13.99 this year. Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is expected to rise to about 772.4 M this year, although the value of Weighted Average Shares will most likely fall to about 117.6 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Atmos Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Atmos Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Atmos Energy's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Atmos Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Atmos Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Atmos Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Atmos Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Atmos. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Atmos Energy cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Atmos Energy's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Atmos Energy's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Atmos Energy polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Atmos Energy as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Atmos Energy Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Atmos Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 119.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.73, mean absolute percentage error of 4.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 105.69.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Atmos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Atmos Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Atmos Energy Stock Forecast Pattern

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Atmos Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Atmos Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Atmos Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 117.73 and 121.67, respectively. We have considered Atmos Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 117.50
117.73
Downside
119.70
Expected Value
121.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Atmos Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Atmos Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.587
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.7326
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.016
SAESum of the absolute errors105.6915
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Atmos Energy historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Atmos Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Atmos Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Atmos Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Atmos Energy in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
115.48117.45119.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
109.04111.01129.15
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
102.86113.39123.92
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
101.00112.83126.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Atmos Energy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Atmos Energy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Atmos Energy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Atmos Energy.

Other Forecasting Options for Atmos Energy

For every potential investor in Atmos, whether a beginner or expert, Atmos Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Atmos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Atmos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Atmos Energy's price trends.

Atmos Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Atmos Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Atmos Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Atmos Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Algonquin Power UtilitiesDuke Energy3M CompanyWalmartMcDonaldsCaterpillarWalt DisneyGeneral ElectricPfizer IncAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group Limited
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Atmos Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Atmos Energy's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Atmos Energy's current price.

Atmos Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Atmos Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Atmos Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Atmos Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Atmos Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Atmos Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Atmos Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Atmos Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Atmos Energy stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Atmos Energy without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Atmos Energy

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Atmos Energy position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Atmos Energy will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Atmos Energy

+0.91CNPCenterPoint Energy Sell-off TrendPairCorr
+0.91SRESempra Energy Sell-off TrendPairCorr
+0.83LULULululemon Athletica Earnings Call TodayPairCorr
+0.72NVDANVIDIA Buyout TrendPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Atmos Energy could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Atmos Energy when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Atmos Energy - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Atmos Energy to buy it.
The correlation of Atmos Energy is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Atmos Energy moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Atmos Energy moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Atmos Energy can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Atmos Energy to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.

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Is Atmos Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Atmos Energy. If investors know Atmos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Atmos Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Atmos Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Atmos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Atmos Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Atmos Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Atmos Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Atmos Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Atmos Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Atmos Energy value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Atmos Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.