AutoNation Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AN
 Stock
  

USD 121.05  0.12  0.1%   

AutoNation Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AutoNation historical stock prices and determine the direction of AutoNation's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of AutoNation historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although AutoNation naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of AutoNation systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of AutoNation fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of AutoNation to cross-verify your projections.
  
AutoNation PPandE Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of PPandE Turnover is estimated at 8.48. Accounts Payable Turnover is expected to rise to 20.18 this year, although the value of Receivables Turnover will most likely fall to 41.21. . AutoNation Weighted Average Shares is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 102.79 Million. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to rise to about 103.9 M this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (2.3 B).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 AutoNation Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AutoNation's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest AutoNation's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies AutoNation stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AutoNation's open interest, investors have to compare it to AutoNation's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AutoNation is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AutoNation. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in AutoNation cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the AutoNation's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets AutoNation's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for AutoNation is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of AutoNation value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

AutoNation Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of AutoNation on the next trading day is expected to be 116.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.13, mean absolute percentage error of 7.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 130.17.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AutoNation Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AutoNation's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

AutoNation Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest AutoNationAutoNation Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

AutoNation Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting AutoNation's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AutoNation's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 114.14 and 119.48, respectively. We have considered AutoNation's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 121.05
114.14
Downside
116.81
Expected Value
119.48
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AutoNation stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AutoNation stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.0886
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.1339
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0195
SAESum of the absolute errors130.166
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of AutoNation. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict AutoNation. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for AutoNation

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AutoNation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of AutoNation's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of AutoNation in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
118.08120.75123.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
108.95133.02135.69
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
103.00150.71220.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
16.8717.5117.81
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AutoNation. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AutoNation's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AutoNation's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in AutoNation.

Other Forecasting Options for AutoNation

For every potential investor in AutoNation, whether a beginner or expert, AutoNation's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AutoNation Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AutoNation. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AutoNation's price trends.

AutoNation Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AutoNation stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AutoNation could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AutoNation by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Cars IncRumbleONRush Enterprises AAdvance Auto PartsAbby IncAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings
 Risk & Return  Correlation

AutoNation Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AutoNation's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AutoNation's current price.

AutoNation Risk Indicators

The analysis of AutoNation's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AutoNation's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting AutoNation stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in AutoNation without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run Earnings Calls Now

   

Earnings Calls

Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges
All  Next Launch Module

Pair Trading with AutoNation

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AutoNation position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AutoNation will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with AutoNation

+0.79GPIGroup 1 Automotive Normal TradingPairCorr
+0.79LADLithia Motors Downward RallyPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to AutoNation could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace AutoNation when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back AutoNation - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling AutoNation to buy it.
The correlation of AutoNation is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as AutoNation moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if AutoNation moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AutoNation can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of AutoNation to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running AutoNation price analysis, check to measure AutoNation's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AutoNation is operating at the current time. Most of AutoNation's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AutoNation's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AutoNation's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AutoNation to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Probability Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Go
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas
Go
Efficient Frontier
Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market.
Go
Price Transformation
Use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets
Go
ETF Directory
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world
Go
Bond Directory
Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies
Go
Focused Opportunities
Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences
Go
Is AutoNation's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AutoNation. If investors know AutoNation will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AutoNation listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.23
Market Capitalization
B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.045
Return On Assets
0.15
Return On Equity
0.64
The market value of AutoNation is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AutoNation that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AutoNation's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AutoNation's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AutoNation's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AutoNation's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AutoNation's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AutoNation value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AutoNation's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.