THRIVENT LARGE Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

AAAGX
 Fund
  

USD 12.09  0.13  1.09%   

THRIVENT Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast THRIVENT LARGE historical stock prices and determine the direction of THRIVENT LARGE CAP's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of THRIVENT LARGE historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of THRIVENT LARGE to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in THRIVENT LARGE cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the THRIVENT LARGE's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets THRIVENT LARGE's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
THRIVENT LARGE polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for THRIVENT LARGE CAP as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

THRIVENT LARGE Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of THRIVENT LARGE CAP on the next trading day is expected to be 12.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.82.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict THRIVENT Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that THRIVENT LARGE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

THRIVENT LARGE Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest THRIVENT LARGETHRIVENT LARGE Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

THRIVENT LARGE Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting THRIVENT LARGE's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. THRIVENT LARGE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.08 and 14.16, respectively. We have considered THRIVENT LARGE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 12.09
12.12
Expected Value
14.16
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of THRIVENT LARGE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent THRIVENT LARGE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.4548
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2101
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0176
SAESum of the absolute errors12.815
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the THRIVENT LARGE historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for THRIVENT LARGE

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as THRIVENT LARGE CAP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of THRIVENT LARGE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of THRIVENT LARGE in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
10.0512.0914.13
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.0312.0714.11
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
11.5212.1012.68
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as THRIVENT LARGE. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against THRIVENT LARGE's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, THRIVENT LARGE's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in THRIVENT LARGE CAP.

Other Forecasting Options for THRIVENT LARGE

For every potential investor in THRIVENT, whether a beginner or expert, THRIVENT LARGE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. THRIVENT Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in THRIVENT. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying THRIVENT LARGE's price trends.

THRIVENT LARGE Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with THRIVENT LARGE mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of THRIVENT LARGE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing THRIVENT LARGE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
FIDELITY FLEX FREEDOMT Rowe PriceFIDELITY FLEX FREEDOMAmerican Century OneFIDELITY FLEX FREEDOMFIDELITY FLEX FREEDOMFIDELITY FLEX FREEDOMAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USA
 Risk & Return  Correlation

THRIVENT LARGE CAP Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of THRIVENT LARGE's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of THRIVENT LARGE's current price.

THRIVENT LARGE Risk Indicators

The analysis of THRIVENT LARGE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in THRIVENT LARGE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting THRIVENT LARGE stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in THRIVENT LARGE without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Portfolio Rebalancing

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Pair Trading with THRIVENT LARGE

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if THRIVENT LARGE position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in THRIVENT LARGE will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with THRIVENT LARGE

+0.7AXPAmerican Express Sell-off TrendPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to THRIVENT LARGE could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace THRIVENT LARGE when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back THRIVENT LARGE - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling THRIVENT LARGE CAP to buy it.
The correlation of THRIVENT LARGE is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as THRIVENT LARGE moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if THRIVENT LARGE CAP moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for THRIVENT LARGE can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of THRIVENT LARGE to cross-verify your projections. Note that the THRIVENT LARGE CAP information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other THRIVENT LARGE's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.

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When running THRIVENT LARGE CAP price analysis, check to measure THRIVENT LARGE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy THRIVENT LARGE is operating at the current time. Most of THRIVENT LARGE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of THRIVENT LARGE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move THRIVENT LARGE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of THRIVENT LARGE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between THRIVENT LARGE's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine THRIVENT LARGE value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, THRIVENT LARGE's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.