Bursa Malaysia Index Forecast - Polynomial Regression

KLSE
 Index
  

 1,487  43.04  2.98%   

Bursa Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bursa Malaysia historical stock prices and determine the direction of Bursa Malaysia's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Bursa Malaysia historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out fundamental analysis of Bursa Malaysia to check your projections.
Most investors in Bursa Malaysia cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bursa Malaysia's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bursa Malaysia's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Bursa Malaysia polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Bursa Malaysia as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Bursa Malaysia Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Bursa Malaysia on the next trading day is expected to be 1,479 with a mean absolute deviation of 16.32, mean absolute percentage error of 371.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 995.40.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bursa Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bursa Malaysia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bursa Malaysia Index Forecast Pattern

Bursa Malaysia Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bursa Malaysia's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bursa Malaysia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,478 and 1,480, respectively. We have considered Bursa Malaysia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 1,487
1,479
Expected Value
1,480
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bursa Malaysia index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bursa Malaysia index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria124.027
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation16.318
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0113
SAESum of the absolute errors995.4
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Bursa Malaysia historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Bursa Malaysia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bursa Malaysia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bursa Malaysia's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Bursa Malaysia in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
1,4861,4871,487
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1,4711,4721,635
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bursa Malaysia. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bursa Malaysia's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bursa Malaysia's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Bursa Malaysia.

Other Forecasting Options for Bursa Malaysia

For every potential investor in Bursa, whether a beginner or expert, Bursa Malaysia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bursa Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bursa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bursa Malaysia's price trends.

Bursa Malaysia Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bursa Malaysia index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bursa Malaysia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bursa Malaysia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil CorpPowered Brands Cl
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bursa Malaysia Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bursa Malaysia's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bursa Malaysia's current price.

Bursa Malaysia Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bursa Malaysia index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bursa Malaysia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bursa Malaysia index market strength indicators, traders can identify Bursa Malaysia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bursa Malaysia Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bursa Malaysia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bursa Malaysia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Bursa Malaysia stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Bursa Malaysia in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Bursa Malaysia's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Bursa Malaysia options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out fundamental analysis of Bursa Malaysia to check your projections. You can also try Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.

Other Tools for Bursa Index

When running Bursa Malaysia price analysis, check to measure Bursa Malaysia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bursa Malaysia is operating at the current time. Most of Bursa Malaysia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bursa Malaysia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bursa Malaysia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bursa Malaysia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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