Jakarta Comp Index Forecast - Naive Prediction

JKSE
 Index
  

 7,055  38.03  0.54%   

Jakarta Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Jakarta Comp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Jakarta Comp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Jakarta Comp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out fundamental analysis of Jakarta Comp to check your projections.
Most investors in Jakarta Comp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Jakarta Comp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Jakarta Comp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Jakarta Comp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Jakarta Comp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Jakarta Comp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Jakarta Comp on the next trading day is expected to be 7,048 with a mean absolute deviation of 39.70, mean absolute percentage error of 2,651, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,422.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jakarta Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jakarta Comp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Jakarta Comp Index Forecast Pattern

Jakarta Comp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Jakarta Comp's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jakarta Comp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7,047 and 7,049, respectively. We have considered Jakarta Comp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 7,055
7,048
Expected Value
7,049
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jakarta Comp index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jakarta Comp index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria125.993
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation39.6991
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0056
SAESum of the absolute errors2421.6447
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Jakarta Comp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Jakarta Comp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Jakarta Comp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jakarta Comp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jakarta Comp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Jakarta Comp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
7,0117,0127,013
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
6,3117,0397,040
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
6,9447,0317,119
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Jakarta Comp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Jakarta Comp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Jakarta Comp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Jakarta Comp.

Other Forecasting Options for Jakarta Comp

For every potential investor in Jakarta, whether a beginner or expert, Jakarta Comp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jakarta Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jakarta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jakarta Comp's price trends.

Jakarta Comp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jakarta Comp index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jakarta Comp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jakarta Comp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil CorpPowered Brands Cl
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Jakarta Comp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Jakarta Comp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Jakarta Comp's current price.

Jakarta Comp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jakarta Comp index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jakarta Comp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jakarta Comp index market strength indicators, traders can identify Jakarta Comp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Jakarta Comp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Jakarta Comp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jakarta Comp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Jakarta Comp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Jakarta Comp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out fundamental analysis of Jakarta Comp to check your projections. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

Other Tools for Jakarta Index

When running Jakarta Comp price analysis, check to measure Jakarta Comp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Jakarta Comp is operating at the current time. Most of Jakarta Comp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Jakarta Comp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Jakarta Comp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Jakarta Comp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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