IBEX 35 Index Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

IBEX
 Index
  

 8,332  9.60  0.12%   

IBEX 35 Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast IBEX 35 historical stock prices and determine the direction of IBEX 35's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of IBEX 35 historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out fundamental analysis of IBEX 35 to check your projections.
Most investors in IBEX 35 cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the IBEX 35's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets IBEX 35's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
IBEX 35 simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for IBEX 35 are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as IBEX 35 prices get older.

IBEX 35 Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of IBEX 35 on the next trading day is expected to be 8,332 with a mean absolute deviation of 71.48, mean absolute percentage error of 7,587, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,289.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict IBEX 35 Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that IBEX 35's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

IBEX 35 Index Forecast Pattern

IBEX 35 Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting IBEX 35's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. IBEX 35's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8,331 and 8,333, respectively. We have considered IBEX 35's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 8,332
8,332
Expected Value
8,333
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of IBEX 35 index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent IBEX 35 index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria125.2068
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -7.93
MADMean absolute deviation71.4833
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0092
SAESum of the absolute errors4289.0
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting IBEX 35 forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent IBEX 35 observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for IBEX 35

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as IBEX 35. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of IBEX 35's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of IBEX 35 in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8,3218,3228,323
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8,0798,0809,154
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
7,7228,0538,383
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as IBEX 35. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against IBEX 35's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, IBEX 35's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in IBEX 35.

Other Forecasting Options for IBEX 35

For every potential investor in IBEX 35, whether a beginner or expert, IBEX 35's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. IBEX 35 Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in IBEX 35. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying IBEX 35's price trends.

IBEX 35 Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with IBEX 35 index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of IBEX 35 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing IBEX 35 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil CorpPowered Brands Cl
 Risk & Return  Correlation

IBEX 35 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of IBEX 35's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of IBEX 35's current price.

IBEX 35 Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how IBEX 35 index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading IBEX 35 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying IBEX 35 index market strength indicators, traders can identify IBEX 35 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

IBEX 35 Risk Indicators

The analysis of IBEX 35's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in IBEX 35's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting IBEX 35 stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards IBEX 35 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, IBEX 35's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from IBEX 35 options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out fundamental analysis of IBEX 35 to check your projections. Note that the IBEX 35 information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other IBEX 35's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

Other Tools for IBEX 35 Index

When running IBEX 35 price analysis, check to measure IBEX 35's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy IBEX 35 is operating at the current time. Most of IBEX 35's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of IBEX 35's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move IBEX 35's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of IBEX 35 to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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