DOW JONES Index Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

DJI
 Stock
  

 34,590  794.34  2.35%   

DOW JONES Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast DOW JONES historical stock prices and determine the direction of DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of DOW JONES historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Your Current Watchlist.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-09 DOW JONES Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast DOW JONES's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest DOW JONES's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies DOW JONES stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current DOW JONES's open interest, investors have to compare it to DOW JONES's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of DOW JONES is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in DOW JONES. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in DOW JONES cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the DOW JONES's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets DOW JONES's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for DOW JONES - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When DOW JONES prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in DOW JONES price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL.

DOW JONES Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL on the next trading day is expected to be 34,697 with a mean absolute deviation of 352.33, mean absolute percentage error of 209,710, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20,788.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DOW JONES Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DOW JONES's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

DOW JONES Index Forecast Pattern

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DOW JONES index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DOW JONES index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 42.3535
MADMean absolute deviation352.3342
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0113
SAESum of the absolute errors20787.7186
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past DOW JONES observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL observations.

Predictive Modules for DOW JONES

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of DOW JONES's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of DOW JONES in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
34,58834,59034,591
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
31,82131,82338,049
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
34,59034,59034,590
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as DOW JONES. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against DOW JONES's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, DOW JONES's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL.

DOW JONES Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DOW JONES index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DOW JONES could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DOW JONES by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
AMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLCVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil CorpPowered Brands
 Risk & Return  Correlation

DOW JONES Risk Indicators

The analysis of DOW JONES's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DOW JONES's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting DOW JONES stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in DOW JONES without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run ETF Directory Now

   

ETF Directory

Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world
All  Next Launch Module

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out Your Current Watchlist. You can also try Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.

Other Tools for DOW JONES Index

When running DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL price analysis, check to measure DOW JONES's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy DOW JONES is operating at the current time. Most of DOW JONES's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of DOW JONES's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move DOW JONES's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of DOW JONES to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Center
All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios
Go
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Go
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
Go