DOW JONES Index Forecast - Naive Prediction

DJI
 Stock
  

 34,590  737.24  2.18%   

DOW JONES Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast DOW JONES historical stock prices and determine the direction of DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of DOW JONES historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out fundamental analysis of DOW JONES to check your projections.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-09 DOW JONES Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast DOW JONES's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest DOW JONES's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies DOW JONES stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current DOW JONES's open interest, investors have to compare it to DOW JONES's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of DOW JONES is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in DOW JONES. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in DOW JONES cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the DOW JONES's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets DOW JONES's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for DOW JONES is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

DOW JONES Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL on the next trading day is expected to be 34,945 with a mean absolute deviation of 308.48, mean absolute percentage error of 150,129, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18,817.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DOW JONES Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DOW JONES's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

DOW JONES Index Forecast Pattern

DOW JONES Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting DOW JONES's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DOW JONES's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34,944 and 34,947, respectively. We have considered DOW JONES's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 34,590
34,944
Downside
34,945
Expected Value
34,947
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DOW JONES index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DOW JONES index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria130.0298
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation308.477
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0099
SAESum of the absolute errors18817.0943
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict DOW JONES. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for DOW JONES

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of DOW JONES's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of DOW JONES in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
34,58834,59034,591
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
32,85932,86038,049
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as DOW JONES. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against DOW JONES's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, DOW JONES's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL.

Other Forecasting Options for DOW JONES

For every potential investor in DOW JONES, whether a beginner or expert, DOW JONES's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DOW JONES Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DOW JONES. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DOW JONES's price trends.

DOW JONES Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DOW JONES index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DOW JONES could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DOW JONES by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
AMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLCVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil CorpSignature Bank
 Risk & Return  Correlation

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of DOW JONES's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of DOW JONES's current price.

DOW JONES Risk Indicators

The analysis of DOW JONES's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DOW JONES's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting DOW JONES stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards DOW JONES in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, DOW JONES's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from DOW JONES options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out fundamental analysis of DOW JONES to check your projections. You can also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

Other Tools for DOW JONES Index

When running DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL price analysis, check to measure DOW JONES's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy DOW JONES is operating at the current time. Most of DOW JONES's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of DOW JONES's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move DOW JONES's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of DOW JONES to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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